After several turbulent weeks in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is increasingly being portrayed as directly liable for the fate of the hostages still held by Hamas. Despite increasing internal and international pressure to barter an agreement with Hamas to release the hostages, Netanyahu stays steadfast in his opposition to such an agreement.

Reports within the Israeli and international media Netanyahu is accused of actively tries to undermine any possible agreement.

But despite all this public outrage, Netanyahu’s The grip on power seems so strong as all the time.

Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel almost a 12 months ago has significantly damaged Netanyahu's popularity and his government coalitionThe government's inadequate response to the attack, the prolongation of the conflict and the shortcoming to secure the discharge of all surviving hostages undermine public confidence in Netanyahu and his colleagues. In fact, many expected the federal government to be overthrown inside weeks of the attack.

But whatever the historical low approval rankings by Netanyahu and his government, opposition parties couldn’t capitalize on the political situation.

On the contrary, despite widespread criticism that the illiberal, religious and ultra-nationalist agenda of Netanyahu and his coalition has seriously weakened Israel’s social cohesion and played a major role in Hamas’ decision to initiate the attack, The government has renewed its efforts to implement it.

The forces currently shaping Israel's political landscape are usually not simply a struggle between Netanyahu's conservative coalition and a more liberal opposition, nor a struggle between hawks and doves, or between pro-war and anti-war supporters.

As Scholar of Israeli culture, history and politicsI believe it's rather more complicated.

Dehumanization of the Palestinians

The overwhelming majority of Israelis Distrust of Netanyahu and his government and are further of the opinion that a continuation of the military ground operation within the Gaza Strip, as Netanyahu recommends, endangers the lives of the hostages.

That is why most Israelis support an agreement to return the hostages, which can be achieved by agreeing to a ceasefire or even a withdrawal from Gaza.

However, evidently Israeli Jews agree with Netanyahu that the final word goal of the war is the entire eradication of Hamas, not the return of the hostages, and that Israel is probably going achieve this by continuing the war.

For this reason, they consider that Israel mustn’t abide by international laws of war on this fight. A transparent majority consider that crimes and abuses by Israeli soldiers and other security forces must be addressed. lenient through disciplinary measures quite than criminal charges.

It seems, subsequently, that the resistance of Israeli Jews to the continuation of the Gaza war and the Escalation of Israeli violence within the West Bank The reason for his or her resistance isn’t their concern for the suffering of the Palestinians. Rather, their resistance stems from the fear of endangering the lives of the surviving hostages.

Common worldview

The differences between the governing coalition and lots of of its critics are subsequently less about worldview, strategy, tactics or the morality of the actions within the Gaza Strip, but quite about an assessment of Netanyahu's personality and the performance of his cabinet in times of crisis.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid spoke about Netanyahu very harsh in a recent interview: “The only thing he cares about is staying in power. He has been in power for too long. He cares about power itself and not the power to do good.”

The Hamas attack, the high civilian death toll and the failure to attain a fast, decisive victory and even the looks of 1 have left Netanyahu and his partners the support of the vast majority of Israelis.

If elections were held today, Netanyahu and his allies would wouldn’t have the ability to form a governmentBut the probabilities of early elections are slim: the present coalition has little interest in calling recent elections, and the bulk who enjoy it in parliament prevents the opposition from forcing recent elections. This implies that any try and call recent elections would require the support of a minimum of some members of the coalition.

The improbability of them having the ability to form the following government forces the parties inside Netanyahu’s coalition to stay together and radicalize their agenda.

Intensification their efforts to take care of their basecoalition members insist that their demands must be implemented now – whatever the public outcry, the financial costs or international pressure. They appear to hope that by the point of the elections, which is able to eventually will happen in October 2026they are going to have succeeded in winning the voters back over to their side.

Furthermore, they see the war as a possibility. The current state of emergency as a consequence of the continuing war provides the ruling coalition with a pretext to take illiberal measures that undermine fundamental freedoms, including freedom of expression, protest and occupation.

This is much more true in the case of non-Jewish residents. The heightened security concerns after the war and the incontrovertible fact that lots of its critics the truth is share its worldview allow the ruling coalition to enact laws and administrative measures that might previously have faced much greater public and legal resistance.

The power supply is secure

It is subsequently no wonder that essentially the most radical elements in Netanyahu’s coalition, which explicitly racism, ethnic cleansing And genocidehave gained a disproportionate amount of influence over the federal government, the coalition and the state as a complete.

Netanyahu and his government could also be unpopular, but they’ve a firm grip on power and are pursuing policies that many Israeli Jews, if not Israeli Palestinians, implicitly or explicitly support.

Internal tensions inside Netanyahu's coalition – for instance between the ultra-Orthodox and ultra-nationalist factions – could potentially cause it to fail. But each of those parties has a vested interest in its survival.

I’m convinced that only a unprecedented event could topple Netanyahu: a general and unlimited strike supported not only by the Histadrut, which represents the vast majority of Israeli unions, but in addition by employers and your complete industrial and financial sector; a de facto or legal military coup with the backing of all of the heads of the Israeli armed forces, security forces and intelligence services; or a military and financial embargo against Israel.

Given the extraordinary nature of those events, they’re most unlikely.

Israel's apparent assassinations of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s top military leaderin Beirut, and Hamas politicians Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehranhave once more raised the specter of a regional war between regional adversaries – a war into which the United States could potentially be drawn.

By targeting these two politicians, the Israeli government showed that it’s willing to risk an escalation of the conflict on recent fronts. And this despite the indisputable fact that some senior defense ministers at best contradictory messages In recent months, there was debate about whether the Israel Defense Forces are sufficiently prepared for a full-scale war in Lebanon or elsewhere after nine months of confrontation within the Gaza Strip.

As a Scholar of Lebanon and IsraelI even have been following recent events within the region with growing concern. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could bet that Iran and Hezbollah haven’t any real appetite for all-out war and would quite pursue a policy of continued attrition against Israel.

If so, it’s a dangerous strategy and any miscalculation could have catastrophic consequences.

Increase the stakes

Shukr was killed in the continuing exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah that began on October 8, a day after Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, sparking a violent and sustained response in Gaza. In particular, it was in retaliation for the July 28, 2024 killing of 12 children within the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, for which Hezbollah was blamed.

The Beirut assassination was a daring and dangerous move by Israel, carried out in broad daylight in town despite repeated calls from the United States and other Western countries. to not attack the Lebanese capital.

By carrying out the Beirut operation, Israel has exceeded the bounds of the “rules of the game” in its war of attrition with Hezbollah since October 7. Until now, the Lebanese capital has only been attacked once by Israel, with the January 2, 2024, assassination of Saleh Arourione other Hamas leader, not removed from where Shukr was killed.

At the time, it was assumed that Hezbollah wouldn’t escalate the conflict due to the death of a Palestinian leader, regardless of how vital he might need been.

But there may be little doubt that Hezbollah will react to this recent attack; the questions are how and when and whether the response to it is going to bring the opponents one other step closer to a full-scale war.

An embarrassment for Iran

Haniya’s assassination in Tehran took place within the context of Israel’s declared commitment kill all Hamas leaders was involved within the October 7 massacre, although the country has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack, contrary to usual practice.

Israel According to reports, Qatar guaranteesHaniyeh's host country that it could not attack Hamas leaders inside its borders. Israel also decided to not kill him during Haniyeh's recent visit to Turkeypossibly out of concern about further angering Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Instead, evidently Israel was waiting for the proper opportunity elsewhere to send a transparent message not only to Hamas, but in addition to Israel's foremost regional adversary and Hamas's foremost sponsor, Iran.

The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran puts the Iranian regime in an embarrassing position. The attack by a foreign country openly violated Iran’s sovereignty at a time when the regime was preparing to Celebrate the appointment of a brand new presidentThe Hamas leader was one in every of the international dignitaries invited to the inauguration.

The attack demonstrates two things: Iran's vulnerability and Israel's ability to perform an attack based on accurate intelligence and superior technology. Either way, it exposes the weaknesses of the Iranian regime.

The last time Iran claimed that its sovereignty had been violated by Israel – within the attack on its embassy in Damascus on April 1, 2024 – it responded by firing lots of of missiles and attack drones at Israel.

Iran could this time use its proxies, including Hezbollah, or respond directly by deploying its own military from its own territory, because it did in April. On July 31, it was reported that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered a direct attack.

Israel’s internal political conflicts

I consider that the attacks have destroyed any prospect of an early ceasefire agreement within the Gaza Strip, including the discharge of Israeli hostages.

The killings are also more likely to make the war of attrition between Israel and Hezbollah much more explosive and dangerous.

All parties, including Israel, are apparently aware that a full-scale war is in nobody's interest. This would explain why, despite months of provocations by all parties, there was no such escalation.

But at the identical time, the region is moving ever closer to this possibility; the Middle East is in a phase of maximum fragility.

And all this is going on while Israel is struggling domestically with major challenges for the political system and the rule of lawThe war in Gaza has delivered to the fore forces inside Israeli society that openly seek to vary the political system and challenge each the command structure and the fighting culture of the military.

A recent mob attack on the military police led by right-wing Knesset members Investigation into allegations of torture and sexual assault of Hamas prisoners in Israel is only one example of the cracks developing inside Jewish-Israeli society.

Towards a full-scale war?

Netanyahu, who critics say is understood for his Desire to remain in powerhas built his profession by exploiting internal divisions. His Dependence on right-wing extremist members his government and the indisputable fact that he’s exploiting internal tensions in Israel have only exacerbated divisions.

His decision to authorise the attacks in Beirut and Iran have to be understood within the context of his struggle for political survival.

I consider that every one of Netanyahu's actions, including the prolongation of the war in Gaza, have to be understood on this context. His political survival relies on the support of far-right parties that seek to proceed and expand the war and openly call for a more aggressive stance towards Hezbollah and Iran.

He's also supported by public opinion in Israel, which supports a confrontation with Hezbollah “with full force”, without taking into consideration the indisputable fact that such an motion would likely have devastating consequences for Hezbollah and Lebanon and would exact an unlimited human and infrastructural toll on Israel.

Netanyahu could depend on the indisputable fact that Iran and Hezbollah have to date shown no desire for a full-scale war, although Hezbollah said it is ready.

So far, Israel has shown no desire for a full-scale war on several fronts. But I fear that events resembling the attacks of the previous couple of days could lead on us right into a downward spiral that might be difficult to regulate.

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that the present phase of the fight against Hamas within the Gaza Strip is coming to an end, setting the stage for Israel to send more troops to the northern border to confront the Lebanese militant group. Hezbollah.

The comments threaten to further escalate tensions between Israel and Hezbollah at a time when they look like moving ever closer to war. Netanyahu also signaled that there isn’t any end in sight to the grueling war in Gaza.

The Israeli president said in an extended television interview that although the military was near completing its current ground offensive within the southern Gaza city of Rafah, this didn’t mean that the War against Hamas is over. However, he said fewer troops were needed in Gaza to liberate forces to fight Hezbollah.

“We will have the opportunity to move some of our troops north, and we will do that,” he told Israel's Channel 14, a pro-Netanyahu television station, in an interview ceaselessly interrupted by applause from the studio audience. “First and foremost for defense,” he added, but in addition to permit tens of 1000’s of displaced Israelis to return to their homes.

Iran-backed Hezbollah began attacking Israel almost immediately after Hamas launched a cross-border attack on October 7 that sparked the Gaza war. Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged fire almost each day since then, but fighting has escalated in recent weeks, raising fears of a full-scale war.

Hezbollah is way stronger than Hamas, and opening a brand new front would increase the danger of a bigger, region-wide war involving other Iranian proxies and possibly Iran itself. This war could cause severe damage and diverse casualties on either side of the border.

White House envoy Amos Hochstein was within the region last week and met with Israeli and Lebanese officials to attempt to ease tensions, but fighting continues.

Netanyahu expressed hope that a diplomatic solution to the crisis could possibly be found, but vowed to unravel the issue “in other ways” if essential. “We can fight on several fronts and we are ready to do that,” he said.

He said a deal wouldn’t just be “an agreement on paper.” He said it might require Hezbollah to maneuver removed from the border, an enforcement mechanism to be arrange and Israelis to be returned to their homes. Tens of 1000’s of individuals were evacuated shortly after the fighting broke out and have been unable to return home.

Hezbollah has said it’ll proceed to fight Israel until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. The group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, warned Israel last week against starting a war and said Hezbollah has recent weapons and intelligence capabilities This could help goal much more critical positions inside Israel.

Hezbollah has already introduced recent weapons throughout the fighting, including hard-to-defend attack drones that strike all at once. An Israeli soldier was seriously injured in a drone attack on Sunday.

But Israel claims it has shown Hezbollah only a small a part of its overall capabilities and that Lebanon will turn into a second Gaza Strip within the event of war. Israel's army said last week it had “approved and confirmed” a brand new plan for an offensive in Lebanon.

In the interview, Netanyahu said that the Israeli offensive in Gaza is winding down. The Israeli army has been operating within the southern border town since 2008 Rafah since early May. It said it had inflicted heavy damage on Hamas in Rafah, the last remaining Hamas stronghold after a brutal war that lasted nearly nine months. But he said Israel must proceed its “mowing operations” – targeted attacks aimed toward stopping Hamas from regrouping.

Israel launched its air and ground invasion of the Gaza Strip immediately after the October 7 Hamas attack that killed about 1,200 people and took about 250 others hostage.

The Israeli offensive has killed over 37,000 Palestinians, triggered a humanitarian crisis and triggered war crimes and genocide cases on the world's best dishes in The Hague.

It has also increased tensions with the United States, with President Joe Biden and Netanyahu have clashed publicly throughout the war. On Sunday, Netanyahu reiterated his claim that there had been a “dramatic decline” in arms supplies from the United States, Israel’s closest ally, which was hampering the war effort.

Biden delays delivery certain heavy bombs have stalled since May over fears that there could possibly be large-scale civilian casualties, but his government last week rejected Netanyahu's accusation that other deliveries had also been affected.

Although the United States and other mediators are pushing for a ceasefire, Netanyahu has ruled out ending the war unless Israel releases all hostages held by Hamas and destroys Hamas's military and government capabilities.

The current phase of the war “is nearing its end,” Netanyahu said. “But that does not mean that the war will soon be over.”

Netanyahu spoke as his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, was in Washington to debate the war and tensions with Lebanon with American officials. And next month, Netanyahu is invited to talk before Congress for a speech that’s already dividing Washington along partisan lines. Some Democrats, angered by Netanyahu's public spat with Biden, say You won’t participate.

American politicians are also urging Netanyahu to present a transparent post-war plan for Gaza. The US has said it’ll not accept a long-term Israeli occupation of the territory.

Netanyahu articulated a really different vision. He said Israel's security could only be ensured if Israel maintained military control over the world.

“There is no one else” able to doing this, he said. But he said he was in search of a option to create a Palestinian “civil administration” to run day-to-day affairs in Gaza, hopefully with the support of moderate Arab countries. He ruled out any role for the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority, which was forcibly expelled from Gaza by Hamas in 2007.

Netanyahu ruled out an option favored by a few of his ultranationalist coalition partners – the relocation of Israelis in Gaza. Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, ending a 38-year presence.

“The question of an agreement is not realistic,” he said. “I am realistic.”

Eight months after Israel invaded Gaza, some critics say the Israeli military has not achieved any of its goals Destruction of Hamas and rescue of all remaining 133 hostages Hamas holds.

But two thirds of Israelis proceed to support their military aggressive approach in Gaza – including Restriction of humanitarian aid to the Palestinians.

While many Israelis support the military's war in Gaza, most Israelis have also lost trust within the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and would love to see recent political leadership.

As someone who has been involved in Israeli politics for nearly three many yearsI imagine it can be crucial to know what elements contribute to the collective mindset of Israelis as a way to explain these seemingly contradictory dynamics and views.

A well-recognized feeling of persecution

Hamas militants killed an estimated 1,200 people in Israel on October 7, 2023 and took 240 hostages back to Gaza.

The brutal killings of October 7 and the destruction of entire communities in southern Israel left Israelis feeling shocked, vulnerable and unsure. The attacks reminded Israelis that the country is before them Existential threats that, of their opinion, should be eliminated in every possible way.

Jews have long been persecuted, from Biblical times to the Holocaust during World War II. Some scholars check with this sense of constant, looming persecution as “Masada Syndrome.” Masada, an ancient fortress in southern Israel, was the location of the traditional Kingdom of Israel fought a final battle against the Roman army in 73 AD. Masada was eventually destroyed and all Jewish residents committed suicide to avoid enslavement by the Romans. Afterwards, Jews lost their political independence for nearly 2,000 years until Israel was founded in 1948.

The history of Masada continues to be taught and remembered in Israel as a relentless reminder that Jewish people can never fully depend on the mercy or help of other countries – and that Jewish identity and independence are all the time in danger of persecution. For an extended time, the Israeli forces held their induction ceremonies on the summit of Masada, which can be a well-liked tourist site.

A ceremonial text used throughout the Jewish Passover states: “In every single generation they rise against us to destroy us.”

The Masada syndrome has turn into less pronounced amongst most Israelis in recent many years. This is partly since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been second intifadaa violent rebellion of the Palestinians within the early 2000s. Israel also signed peace treaties with Arabic countries including, lately, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco.

The October 7 attacks caused widespread national trauma and displaced many Israelis to adopt the Masada mentality again.

Alone again

The global response to October 7 is one other necessary factor that has caused many Israelis to fall back into old feelings of persecution and the perceived need for self-defense.

While the United States, United Kingdom and France expressed strong support for Israel shortly after October 7, other countrieslike Russia and China condemn Hamas' attacks.

United Nations experts were also needed about five months to acknowledge systematic sexual violence on October 7.

The widespread rejection of Israel has further isolated Israelis War crimesbecause the International Criminal Court This was recently alleged in a request for arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Israel Defense Minister Yoav GallantSome Israelis have also questioned the accuracy of the data about Number of civilian deaths within the Gaza Strip.

Most Israelis view these genocide allegations for instance of the world's anti-Israel bias and a brand new type of anti-Semitism.

Netanyahu has exploited these feelings of persecution to each legitimize Israel's war in Gaza Downplay criticism his own leadership.

Netanyahu's downfall

Since the start of the Gaza war, polls have consistently reflected the declining support of Israelis for the conservative political parties that form Netanyahu's ruling coalition.

A poll from May 2024 shows that if elections were held today, Netanyahu's party would lose almost 40% of the seats This is the case within the Israeli parliament. The same poll also found that only 35 percent of Israelis think Netanyahu is suitable to be prime minister.

In January, only 15% of Israelis thought Netanyahu should remain in office.

Several aspects explain Israelis' general support for Netanyahu's policies in Gaza, but additionally their growing distrust of him as a politician and leader.

First, Most Israelis blame Netanyahu's government for October 7They see Netanyahu as primarily chargeable for Israel's failure over the past decade to strengthen Hamas's military capabilities, including the development of underground tunnels within the Gaza Strip.

There are also harmful issues that occurred before October seventh. Netanyahu tried undermine the independence of the country's judiciary And Legislation passed in 2023 that the powers of the courts to review laws and government policies were restricted. This triggered widespread protests in Israel.

Israelis also fear that Netanyahu's approach to the war – and his inability to conclude a hostage-taking deal or conform to some form of ceasefire – might be compromised by his desire to stay in power. Netanyahu faces several corruption allegations desires to delay these criminal proceedings – be Defense team said that the war leaves him little time to attend the trials. Netanyahu also desires to appease his right-wing radical supporters who want the war to proceed.

Israelis' concerns about Netanyahu in recent months have manifested themselves in a single Outbreak of mass demonstrations in various Israeli cities. These protesters, including the hostages' families, are demanding that Netanyahu reach an agreement that releases the remaining hostages – even when it means agreeing to a long-term ceasefire.

However, it just isn’t clear whether these protesters represent nearly all of public opinion – and it can be crucial to not confuse this protest with the will of most Israelis for Hamas's defeat.

Israel's dilemma

Israel's future path is unclear and can be influenced by various aspects. Increasing public pressure on Netanyahu could ultimately force him to just accept responsibility for his failure to stop the Oct. 7 attack and resign.

The increasing intensity of Israeli demonstrations demanding his resignation show the increasing possibility of such a scenario.

At the identical time, growing international pressure on Israel to finish its war in Gaza could prompt Netanyahu to achieve this have more conflicts with right-wing extremist members his coalition, which ultimately resulted within the collapse of his government and his downfall.

Finally, the potential of the war escalating right into a larger regional conflict would dramatically alter the present dynamics within the region in ways which might be difficult to predict. Nevertheless, this development could force Israel to finish the war in Gaza as a way to reply to other emerging military threats.

Pentagon confirms pause in arms deliveries to Israel

Will it actually affect anything?