The US presidential election will happen on November 5. Election analyst Nate Silver national survey aggregate Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump with 45.5% to 44.1%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5.0%.

When President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy on July 21, Trump was at 45.2%-41.2%. Lead over Bidenso Harris has improved Biden's net lead by 5.4 points. In the election, Biden might be at almost 82, Trump at 78 and Harris at 60.

Silver's model gave Trump a 73 percent likelihood of winning the election when Biden was his opponent. When the Harris vs. Trump model was introduced last Tuesday, Trump had a 62 percent likelihood of winning. The model now gives Harris a really slight favorite, with a 50.5 percent likelihood of winning.

The U.S. president is elected not by the favored vote but by the Electoral College, wherein each state receives electoral votes based largely on population. Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, and 270 electoral votes (out of a complete of 538) are needed to win.

Silver's model gives Harris a 66 percent likelihood of winning a majority of the vote, in comparison with a 50.5 percent likelihood within the Electoral College. The model shows that Harris must win a majority of the vote by a minimum of two percentage points to be considered the favourite to win the Electoral College.

The odds for Harris or Trump are still 50-50, but Harris has significantly improved the situation under Biden. The switch from Biden to Harris was clearly the fitting decision for the Democrats.

In the economic data, the Unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 4.3% in July, the very best since October 2021 because the U.S. recovered from the COVID recession. A weaker economy is more likely to help Trump.

Australian politics: the inflation report

The Australian Bureau of Statistics published the Inflation report for the third quarter on July thirty first.

Inflation rose by 1%, the identical as within the March quarter, reaching a 12-month rate of three.8%. However, the trimmed mean and weighted median core inflation within the June quarter were each below headline inflation, which was 0.8%.

The ABC reported Economists considered an rate of interest hike unlikely after this inflation report, and the following rate of interest change is more likely to be downward, but not until early 2025.

The cost of living was by far the largest concern for voters, so this report is modest excellent news for Labour. The polls below include a poor Redbridge poll for Labour, conducted in mid-July.

Important poll: Labour Party narrowly ahead

A national Important surveyThe poll, conducted from 24 to twenty-eight July and covering a sample of 1,137 people, gave Labour a lead of 47-46% including undecided voters, a reversal of the Coalition's lead of 48-46% in mid-July.

In the primaries, 34% voted for the Coalition (up one), 32% for Labor (up three), 11% for the Greens (down two), 7% for One Nation (down one), 2% for UAP (down one), 9% for all others (unchanged) and 6% for undecideds (unchanged).

This is Labour's second lead in Essential's fortnightly polls since April. Labour's poor position on this poll is partly resulting from weak preference flows from respondents.

Anthony Albanese had a -3 Net admissiona rise of six points because the starting of July, with 46% expressing disapproval and 43% approval. Peter Dutton's net approval rose by two points to +1.

56-36% of Australians had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, a big improvement from the 72-20% unfavorable opinions after the 2020 US election. 48-25% had a good opinion of Harris. 37-23% of voters thought Australia's relations with the US would worsen if Trump were elected president.

Regarding union membership, 11% said they were currently union members, 28% weren’t currently but were previously union members, and 58% had never been a member. 64-26% of voters thought unions were essential (60-24% in 2020). 51-26% thought employees could be higher off with stronger unions (50-24% in 2020).

33 percent of respondents said that the connection between employees and unions was too close, 33 percent said it was about right and 10 percent said it was not close enough.

Morgan poll: 50.5-49.5% for Labour

A national Morgan SurveyThe poll, conducted from July 15 to 21 with a sample of 1,752 people, gave the coalition a lead of 51-49%, a gain of 0.5 percentage points because the July 8-14 poll.

In the Morgan Survey The poll was conducted from July 22 to twenty-eight and covered a sample of 1,652 people. Labour was ahead by 50.5% to 49.5%.

In the first election, 37.5% voted for the Coalition (two votes lower than within the period from 15 to 21 July), 30.5% for Labor (one less), 13% for the Greens (unchanged), 6.5% for One Nation (1.5% more), 8.5% for independents (another) and 4% for other parties (0.5% more).

Taking under consideration preferences resulting from the 2022 election results, Labour was ahead by 51% to 49%, a gain of 0.5 percentage points.

Redbridge poll: Big swing to coalition gives them lead

A national Redbridge poll conducted from 10 to 19 July with a sample of 1,505 people showed the Coalition leading by 51.5 to 48.5 percent, a gain of three.5 percentage points since Redbridge survey from April.

In the primaries, the vote was 41% for the Coalition (up 4), 32% for Labour (down one), 11% for the Greens (down one) and 16% for all others (down two).

48-27% of voters felt the Albanese government was not focused on the fitting priorities (50-34% in April). 40-34% didn’t consider the Dutton-led coalition was ready to control (previously 45-36%).

38–37% of voters opposed the development of nuclear power stations, but 33–29% believed the Coalition had a greater plan than Labor for future energy reliability and affordability.

YouGov poll: 51-49% for Labour

A national YouGov surveyThe poll, conducted from July 12 to 17 and covering a sample of 1,528 people, gave Labour a 51-49 percent lead, up one percentage point because the last YouGov poll. at first of June.

In the primaries, 38% voted for the Coalition (unchanged), 31% for Labor (up one), 13% for the Greens (down one), 7% for One Nation (down one) and 11% for all others (up one).

Albanese's net approval rating improved by two points to -10, with 52% satisfied and 42% dissatisfied. Dutton's net approval rating increased by nine points to -4. Albanese was ahead as preferred prime minister by 45-37% (up from 47-36% in June).

When asked if they may name something the federal government had done to enhance their personal financial situation, 73 percent said “no” and 27 percent said “yes.” Tax cuts were the most well-liked at 10 percent. In a poll before the May budget, 82 percent of respondents answered “no.”

In further questions The previous YouGov poll shows that 31% lean towards more capitalism, 27% towards more socialism and 42% are neutral. 50-27% of voters think that the federal government Support low-cost airlines.

A national newspollconducted from June 24 to twenty-eight amongst a sample of 1,260 people, showed Labor leading the Coalition 51 percent to 49 percent, a gain of 1 percentage point because the last Newspoll poll three weeks ago. In the first election, 36 percent voted for the Coalition (down three), 32 percent for Labor (down one), 13 percent for the Greens (up two), 7 percent for One Nation (unchanged) and 12 percent for all others (up two).

Newspoll uses preference flows for 2022 to calculate its two-party estimate. Using the rounded primaries would normally give Labor a 52-48% lead, so the rounding on this poll probably favoured the Coalition.

With Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 53% were dissatisfied (up three) and 42% satisfied (down one), giving him a net approval rating of -11, a drop of 4 points. This is Albanese's lowest net approval rating since -13 in November 2023 after the Voice referendum. The graph below comprises Newspoll data on Albanese's net approval rating (plus sign) for this term, with an adjusted smoothed line.

However, opposition leader Peter Dutton's net approval rankings fell six percentage points to -16, the bottom since October 2023. Albanese was unchanged at 46-38%, ahead of Dutton as the higher prime minister.

45 to 42 percent of voters rejected the “Coalition’s plans to build nuclear reactors at seven existing and former coal-fired power stations in Australia by 2050.”

The controversy over the nuclear plans has likely given Labor a lift inside the two parties, even when ongoing cost-of-living pressures are denting Albanese's popularity.

Solve survey on nuclear power

A national Cancel survey A nine-newspaper poll of 1,003 people conducted after the announcement of Dutton's nuclear plans (20-23 June) found that 41-37% of voters supported nuclear power. In a more open-ended query, 32% (4 fewer than in February) said they supported nuclear power, 28% opposed it (five more) and 30% (three more) had no strong opinion but were open to an investigation.

Renewable energies generally had a net sympathy of +66, nuclear power of +8 and coal power of +2.

When given the selection between “Labour's plan to switch to 100 per cent renewable energy over the next one to two decades (supported by gas over the next one to two decades)” and “the Coalition's plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support renewable energy”, voters voted for Labour's plan by a majority of 43 per cent to 33 per cent.

Important poll: Labour leads for the primary time since April

A National Essential SurveyThe poll of 1,181 people, conducted between 12 and 16 June, gave Labour a lead of 48-46%, including undecided voters, after a 48-48% tie in early June.

This is Labour's first lead in an Essential poll since April, partly on account of weak preference flows amongst respondents in favour of Labour.

The primary votes on this poll were 32% for the Coalition (down 4), 31% for Labor (down one), 13% for the Greens (unchanged), 8% for One Nation (up three), 1% for UAP (down two), 9% for all others (up one) and 6% for undecideds (up two).

On Australia's Emissions targets52% said we should always persist with our 2030 goal, while 48% said we should always abandon it since it was unattainable and damaging to the economy. 36-31% of voters rejected Dutton's decision to oppose Australia's 2030 goal.

Regarding Israel's military motion within the Gaza Strip, 38 percent (six percentage points greater than in April) said Israel should withdraw permanently, 21 percent (two percentage points more) said a brief ceasefire needs to be agreed to, and 15 percent (4 percentage points less) said Israel's military motion was justified.

Fifty-two percent were satisfied with the Australian government's response to the Israel-Gaza war, 32 percent said it supported Israel an excessive amount of and 16 percent said it was too harsh on Israel.

56-22% of voters supported regulating e-cigarettes so that they’re only available on prescription in pharmacies (in comparison with 58-20% in March). Negative attitudes toward e-cigarettes have increased since March.

Morgan poll: 51-49% for Labour

A national Morgan surveyThe June 10-16 poll, which sampled 1,724 people, found Labour and the Coalition tied 50-50, a gain of three.5 percentage points because the June 2-9 poll, which was a pro-Labour outlier.

In the Morgan Survey The poll was conducted from June 17 to 23 with a sample of 1,696. Labour was ahead by 51 percent to 49 percent.

The primary vote was 37% for the Coalition (down one since 10-16 June), 31.5% for Labor (up two), 13% for the Greens (down 0.5), 6% for One Nation (up one), 8.5% for Independents (unchanged) and 4% for Others (down 1.5).

Further questions on Resolve

I previously reported for nine newspapers on the nationwide Resolve poll, which gave Dutton the lead as preferred prime minister for the primary time within the history of a polling organisation.

In further questions41% (down 4 since August 2023 and ten since October 2021) said climate change is a major problem and we should always take motion now, even when it comes at a big cost.

Thirty-two percent of respondents (up three percentage points since August 2023 and five since October 2021) believed that climate change is gradual, so we will address it in small steps over time. 18 percent (up two and up six) said: “Until we are sure that climate change is a real problem, we should only consider measures that do not entail significant costs.”

Fifty-two percent of respondents supported the goal of a 43 percent emissions reduction by 2030 or called for a more ambitious goal, while 30 percent called for a discount within the goal or rejected it outright.

Voters were asked what Forms of protest They considered it legitimate. The types of protest with the best support were rallies in a park or in front of a parliament (53%) and demonstrations on the road (41%). Other types of protest that involved disturbing the general public or a member of parliament received lower than 15% support.

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NSW Resolve poll: Labor stays ahead on preferences

A brand new South Wales Resolve status survey The poll for the Sydney Morning Herald, based on the May and June nationwide Resolve polls with a sample of 1,000 people, showed 35% for the Coalition (down one vote since April), 32% for Labor (down one vote), 11% for the Greens (down one vote), 15% for independents (down one vote) and seven% for other voters (down two votes) in the first election.

Resolve didn’t provide a two-sided estimate, but The survey parasite estimated that Labor may have a 52-48% lead based on the preference distribution on the 2023 state election. This is barely higher for Labor than a recent poll in NSW Redbridge, which predicted they might only have a 50.5-49.5% lead.

Incumbent Labor politician Chris Minns was voted the popular prime minister, 38% to 13% ahead of Liberal Democrat Mark Speakman (in comparison with 37% to 16% in April).

Voters were also told that the Labour government had recently announced plans to Promoting denser developmentreminiscent of housing blocks, are to be built near 37 railway stations and that the Liberals opposed this policy. 50-31% of voters supported this policy.

A by-election in NSW took place on 22 June in Northern Plateauswith Labor not contesting. The Nationals won 68.0% of the first vote (a decline of 4.2% because the 2023 state election), the Shooters 11.4% (up 7.9%), the Greens 9.1% (up 4.5%) and two independents combined 11.6%; Labor had gained 10.2% in 2023.

The Electoral Commission has chosen the Nationals and the Greens as the ultimate two candidates within the Nationals versus Shooters battle. The Nationals will win very easily.

The end result of a special election to greater than double the parcel tax for residents of Los Gatos and Saratoga was not yet clear as of press time on May 14th.

Voters within the Los Gatos-Saratoga Union High School District were asked via absentee ballot whether an annual parcel tax that helps fund the district needs to be increased from $49 to $128. If approved, the extra funding would support the district's efforts to retain its teachers and staff and support its profession and college readiness programs and academic offerings.

On Tuesday, the measure passed with 66.7% of the vote, just over the two-thirds of votes the district needs for the rise to take effect. In Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties, voter turnout was 28.18% and 29.12%, respectively.

The district's current parcel tax is scheduled to run out in 2025. Board President Misty Davies said at a recent meeting that the district would really want a $337 parcel tax to lift salaries and adequately compete with neighboring districts. However, surveys have shown that requiring greater than $128 is unlikely to occur.

If the measure fails, the district could have to place the parcel tax back on the ballot in November. And to stop voters from rejecting the parcel tax entirely, which could lead to significant budget cuts for the district, trustees said they might then likely ask voters to renew the present $49 parcel tax in November, as an alternative of accelerating them. Parcel tax funds can’t be used for salaries or advantages of administrative officials.

Santa Cruz County Clerk Tricia Webber said the county will certify the election results by May 22. Santa Clara County plans to certify its results for the special election by June 6, in accordance with the county's registrar of voters.

Trustees said the increased parcel tax will help retain the district's teachers, who’re increasingly being drawn to neighboring highschool districts that might offer higher starting salaries.

“When we look at where we are right now and how competitive some districts are, we really feel like we need to do a better job,” Trustee Katherine Tseng said.

The $49 parcel tax has been in effect since 2011 and was prolonged for eight years in 2016. Tseng said the present parcel tax was approved after three failed attempts over 20 years. She said surveys the district has conducted in recent times have shown voters haven’t been receptive to a parcel tax increase.

The district will cover the prices of the special election. Similar special elections have cost around $800,000.

The cost of conducting elections within the two counties has yet to be finalized, but a spokesman for the Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters said it’s estimated at $724,000 to $1,086,014. Webber said the overall cost for Santa Cruz County is not going to be determined until the outcomes are certified, but is predicted to be about $7 to $8 for every of the county's 3,689 registered voters who live inside the highschool district's boundaries.

The public schools in Los Gatos and Saratoga have long been a draw for brand new residents. But Jen Young, president of the district's teachers association and a math teacher at Los Gatos High School, said the teachers who provide that quality training have been in need of upper salaries for a while due to the rising cost of living.

Young said what kept teachers within the district was the positive work culture and environment. But as the price of living continues to rise, that sense of community is not any longer enough to take care of the school the district is pleased with, she said.

Trustee Alex Shultz said for residents occupied with selling their homes in the long run, the increased property tax is an investment in property value because more funding to draw and retain quality teachers within the district would make the world much more attractive to live in .

“If you sell your house and we succeed in keeping the schools strong and attractive, you get every penny of what you put into it times ten,” Shultz said. “Actually, I think it’s more of an investment than a tax.”

The special election can also be coming during a teacher shortage, Shultz says this trend has increased within the Bay Area because the price of living is already high. 2022 Census data shows that the median income is $198,117 in Los Gatos and $237,730 in Saratoga, however the starting salary for teachers in the present school 12 months within the district is just $66,248.

Shultz said he and Tseng have been talking to members of the community and knocking on doors to encourage people to vote before the deadline and have heard anecdotally that residents support the rise.

“The vast majority of people are very positive, but you don't know if they're just telling you what you want to hear,” he said.