The tensions between the USA and Europe have met something deep previously few weeks – and China could possibly be able to use the spit to strengthen its relationships through the continent.

Transatlantic tribes took the lead last week during a catastrophic meeting between US President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy within the Oval Office. What began as a possible signing of a critical mineral contract resulted in a public call game.

Trump has also introduced repeated threats of tariffs for EU imports and said that the block was “formed to fool the United States”. In the meantime, Vance has Europe on the Munich Security Conference last month and said that he was concerned about “the threat from the inside”.

This burden within the so -called “special relationship” has develop into Beijing an unexpected ally and lawyer for Europe. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited the continent last month to induce narrower relationships and more cooperation.

“China clearly reacts with a magic offensive, tries to create a stabilizing force and potential alternative poles, to take advantage of European fears and to hope for a reverse of Beijing's own conditions,” said Alicja Bachulska, political scholarship between the European Council for external trust, said CNBC via e -Mail.

After each the EU and Ukraine weren’t excluded with surprising peace talks with Russia, Wang said, said Wang At the Munich Security Conference that China hopes that every one parties can participate in peace talks to finish the war in Ukraine. “Since the war takes place on European soil, it is all the more necessary that Europe plays its role for peace,” he said in comments from Reuters.

For Beijing, it’s a “inexpensive way” to specific the role of Europe within the Ukraine peace negotiations with the intention to signal its respect for the EU and “to draw a contrast to Trump,” said Gabriel Wildau, Managing Director at Teneo.

“China aims to achieve strategic influence on Europe, as its investment and trading policy demonstrates. The forays in the context of Ukraine should be rated in this light,” Ian Bremmer, President of Political Risk Council, Eurasia Group, told CNBC via e -Mail.

When Trump doubles Protectionist politics, analysts say that China can win from a European pressure, which is freed from US printing, sanctions and restrictions against Beijing.

Europe has historically largely matched the US trade policy with the intention to protect Western technical innovations and its economic interests.

Take the Dutch chip equipment manufacturer ASMLFor example, the turnover of advanced semiconductor production equipment was limited by the Dutch government based on the US export controls.

“At the request of the United States, many Europe's that clamp against China was that this is in a sense to be part of the price price … and to become dependent on the United States for defense,” David Roche, strategy in quantum strategy, told CNBC in a call.

“The Europeans may be hit [by potential tariffs]But they won't be a slave for the Americans anymore, “said Roche.

A broken transatlantic alliance could subsequently profit Beijing because Europe is “less susceptible” for the US print, said Teneo's Wildau, which may result in a rollback from the prevailing export controls or not less than to create recent ones.

An example of a change in trade policy could possibly be the present tariff of the European Union for Chinese vehicles, so Wildau that the leaders of the block could come to the conclusion that they don’t have any selection than reversing the course.

The European auto industry was increasingly under pressure since the automobile manufacturers fight with several headwinds that range from the transition to electric vehicles to rising competition from China and now the threat from US tariffs.

Chinese cooperation could help Europe to provide the parts essential for its EVS in order that the block can obtain the technology and achieve its sustainability goals, Roche suggested – with this gap that China could possibly close.

“The reality is that Europe has to search for alternative markets in the broadest sense of the word to help China in the USA,” added Roche.

President Trump's latest steps have moved the leaders in Europe with Friedrich Merz in Europe tell In a speech after the victory of his party previously week, the general public broadcaster is that the United States is now “indifferent” for the fate of Europe and that its priority is that Europe “achieve independence of the United States”.

“Merz 'comments will not be unnoticed by Beijing” Thanos Papasavvas, founder and Chief Investment Officer at ABP Invest, told CNBC via e -Mail:

Some analysts say it’s unclear how much progress could be made in repairing a strenuous relationship between Europe and China.

“After all, this is still the same china that the EU has to do in recent years – China, the Russia, supports China, which threatens industrial power in Europe, and China, which imposes sanctions against European civil servants and civil society organizations,” said the European Council for Bachulska in Bachulska.

Bremmer The Eurasia Group added that Beijing's efforts to revive relationships with Europe

“The Europeans are not driven away from the United States by the transaction policy in Washington, but openly hostile and predatory,” he said. “When this trend is continued, the transatlantic partners go to a separation.”

President Donald Trump's return to the White House completely modified the attitude of America to support Ukraine and caused the European nations to think about latest options for supporting military support for Kyiv.

Last month, the US President accused the Ukraine for the start of the war, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a dictator, even when Ukraine was prevented for the reason that war within the war within the war in 202 – and commenced talking to Russia in Saudi Arabia, the dismantling of the Ukrain of the Ukrain Ukrain of the Ukrainian and European officials.

The tensions escalated last week after an explosive collision within the Oval Office between Trump, the US Vice President JD Vance and Zelenskyy. According to reports, the United States has now reported the military support of Ukraine while an assessment of the situation is being carried out.

The European leaders come together to face behind Ukraine in the course of the dwindling US support. One of the mechanisms that Europe makes available to compensate for the shortage of American support is to completely confiscate frozen Russian assets within the region.

In the course of the war there have been many debates on whether these assets may very well be used to support Ukraine. In June 2024, the G7 mainly agreed to spend loans of $ 50 billion to Ukraine, which were supported by the profits generated from around 300 billion euros of frozen Russian assets.

Since then, the European Member States have pursued the complete confiscation of such assets resulting from concerns regarding legal and economic effects.

The EU has prompted the newest escalation of the tensions between the block and the USA to research more aggressive actions Bloomberg reported. The idea could be that a global claim commission that has not yet been established, reparations from Russia, demanded, and in the event that they don’t agree to completely conquer them, Bloomberg reported to cite people who find themselves acquainted with the conversations.

Several EU numbers have taken support for the complete fitting, including the top of foreign policy Kaja Kallas and the Commissioner for Economic Affairs Valdis Dombrovskis.

At the meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council at the tip of February, Kallas explained This work to realize an asset confiscation contract was “permanent” and that “, especially in the situation in which we are in, the conclusion that our taxpayers should not be the ones who pay for it should be.

Towards the end of the last month, British Foreign Minister David Lammy also told the British Parliament that “Europe has to act quickly, and I feel we should always pass from the freezing of assets to confiscate assets.” Estonia and Poland have also expressed support for the confiscation of assets.

In A opinion After reporting the US withdrawal of military help in the United States, Estonia's Foreign Minister urged to report that Europe's Foreign Minister had violated Europe at the beginning of this week: “There are not any legal options for using Russia's frozen assets. Last week, I shared a draft for a newspaper with our European partners, which has a transparent solution to using frozen assets which might be used to make use of frozen were convicted.

Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia on the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IIS), said CNBC by email: “Many Central European states are sympathetic to the case for confiscation, but are reluctant to say this if there is no common EU position.”

Nevertheless, several states are concerned, and he particularly noticed Germany and France as “main content”.

This could change now With the FT reporting, each nations are open to discussions Investigation of assets.

In theory, all 27 EU member states unanimously agreed to confiscate Russian assets and “satisfy Belgium to confiscate the assets,” said Armin Steinbach, Jean Monnet Professor for EU law and economy at HEC Paris, to CNBC.

The other option could be that Belgium pursues the confiscation of assets individually if the EU sanctions run without renewal, said Steinbach. Belgium, nonetheless, probably doesn’t appear to do because it has Reports Warned of the legal and economic risks, the asset confiscation within the euro zone.

Steinbach also noticed that it will be “morally convincing but legally difficult” for Europe to confiscate Russian assets, since Europe is proscribed to adopting countermeasures against Russia's violations of international law, which, in response to international law, should be “temporarily” and “reversible”.

At the identical time, Ukraine has a claim for damage against Russia to pay for the injuries to the war. The query is whether or not the EU could implement this claim for damage to Ukraine by confiscating Russian assets, “said the professor.

He referred to a “creative proposal” in which Ukraine transfers its “claims against Russia to the G7”, which would then enforce this claim for Kyiv by setting up Russian assets. Steinbach found that “such a transfer has never taken place in response to international law” and that the query of immunity protection for sovereign assets stays.

Iiss' Gould-Davies noticed that Extensive studies by international lawyers showed that “there’s a secure legal way” and that the fears were exaggerated against economic effects.

“When the assets were frozen for the primary time – for the time being when Russia lost access to them – there have been no antagonistic effects on European economic or financial stability. There isn’t any reason to assume that markets or individual states would act if Russia has lost these assets permanently and officially,” he said.

In view of the talks to end the war and ending the current clarity about the potential result, Europe is still considering whether the seizure of Russian assets to support Ukraine could enable the purchase of additional weapons or whether such means could help to rebuild the country.

David Roche, an experienced investor and strategist at Quantum Strategy, said that Russia was no longer confused and returned to increase the economy as part of his discussions with the United States.

“There is little doubt that Putin will want [them] Back, “he told CNBC on February 26 and added that Putin would try to complete a deal with Trump that could force Europe to prevent assets stored on European soil.

Russia also pressed out beforehand Would relativize if his assets were to be confiscated.

The withdrawal of the support of the United States and the urgent need to increase the expenditure of defense, “lets the seizure of Russian assets even rationally and urgently” say Gould-Davies and asked: “Why not take free money from the attacker?”

Europe competes for a say within the rapidly produced Russia-Ukraine peace talks after the United States has tightened the fears over the weekend that Brussels would lack the very best level at the very best level.

European leaders might be gathered for an emergency summit in Paris on Monday, which was swiftly gathered by French President Emmanuel Macron after hopes for the participation of Europe on the Munich Security Conference.

Washington and Moscow will launch discussions to finish an end to the virtually three-year Russia Ukraine war in Saudi Arabia, as US President Donald Trump's top diplomat Marco Rubio will sit down with Russia's Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday.

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on Monday that based on Reuters, he’ll travel to Riad on Wednesday, while he found that Ukraine wouldn’t participate in the primary talks between the United States and Russia. He added that one other direct meeting with Trump would probably follow.

“Ukraine will not participate. Ukraine knew nothing about it,” he said reporters during a video briefing from the United Arab Emirates, where he was a state visit. “Ukraine looks at all negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine as such that have no result.”

After Trump said on Sunday, Zelenskyy can be involved in peace talks with Russia and up to now few days there may be contradicting comments by US officials.

However, the EU and the United Kingdom are probably not a physical place on the negotiating table – either originally or within the run -up to the discussions, said the US special Presidential Officer for Ukraine and Russia Kellogg on Saturday.

“What we do not want to do is a big group discussion,” he said to a Fringe event in Munich and located that the interests of the Allies can be “taken into account” as an alternative.

Russia's Lavrov put the confusion on Monday and said: “I don't know what European countries should do in talks about Ukraine.”

Instead, the United States has asked the European allies to fill out a questionnaire by which it’s explained what number of troops and skills they might use in Ukraine as security guarantees. after According to Reuters. Further questions are, which guarantees security guither, how Europe would “see sufficient deterrence for Russia and at the same time ensure that this conflict ends with a permanent peace regulation”.

The head of foreign policy of the European Union, Kaja Kallas, said on Saturday that a everlasting peace agreement without participation in Europe wouldn’t be possible.

“In order for everything to work, it must have Ukrainians and Europeans as part of it, because the Ukrainians and Europeans also have to implement the deal here in Europe. Without us, every deal would not simply work” CNBC Silvia Amaro on the sting of the MSC.

The President of the European Commission, the President of the European Commission, the President of the European Commission, warned on Friday that the failure to secure “just and permanent peace” for Ukraine wouldn’t only weaken Europe, but in addition the united States would weaken “.

Nevertheless, some have criticized the negotiations against the exclusion of Europe, with Lithuania's former Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said that the block should have formulated its own peace strategy.

“I understand the frustration that Europe isn’t on the table, but the rationale why not is that Europe has little or no to supply the table,” he told CNBC on Saturday. “If we were now able to offer troops, money and integration into the EU, we could have our own table. We could invite the Ukrainians and Putin and Trump to speak about peace, equivalent to Europe and Ukraine understand it.”

The summit on Monday in Paris consists of representatives of seven European nations, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk. British Prime Minister Keir Starrer is also present, and the British leader said he hoped that he would act as a channel between Brussels and Washington if he should meet Trump next week.

Writing on Sunday in the Telegraph, Starrer said, if necessary, he was ready to set British “Boots on the ground” in Ukraine to secure European security and to convince Trump from the role of Europe when ensuring peace for Kyiv.

“The US wishes for peace correspond exactly to what we wish,” said Paris on Monday in Paris and added that the continent had to increase its defense spending – a long -term criticism of President Trump.

Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, confirmed on Saturday that the military alliance would try to increase the goals of defense spending if members meet for a summit in June. While he did not deliver a specific figure, later told Paul McLeary from Politico that the number could be “considerably greater than 3%”.

Europe is facing a new reality of a less oriented, both in terms of defense and other common interests. The leaders were stunned on Friday after the US Vice President JD Vance had used his speech at the Munich Security Conference to start an attack on European democracy and provoke strong refusal from the region.

The French economy and finance minister Eric Lombard announced CNBC on Monday that Trump's election and Vances had served as a “electric shock” for Europe.

“Europe now has to place together its motion to reply,” said Lombard to Charlotte Reed and added that he was “completely confident” that Europe could encounter this “historical challenge”.

The Germany's Scholz also violently defended the democratic values ​​of Europe on Saturday and pointed out the risk of “radical anti -democrats” on the basics of Germany and Europe.

Nevertheless, some EU executives have made concerns about a lack of equality in the entire block, which is illustrated by their exclusion from Macron's Ukraine summit. Slovenian President Natasa Pirc Musar said In a contribution on Monday that the cherry packaging of the participants had sent the “mistaken message” about the European unit in Ukraine and other topics at a particularly central time.

“At the symbolic level, the conveners of the Paris Summit of the world prove that even in European countries,” she wrote, according to Google Translate. “This isn’t a Europe that’s respected on the planet. This isn’t a Europe that is taken into account as a partner for a North American ally.”

The French government is once more on the point of collapse after Prime Minister Michel Barnier refused to present in to demands from right and left parties for further concessions on the country's budget plans.

He now faces a vote of no confidence on Wednesday afternoon, which he’ll almost definitely lose.

Meanwhile, the German government is already heading in the right direction for early elections early next 12 months, with its own vote of no confidence set to happen in the following few weeks.

Even within the UK, Prime Minister Kier Starmer and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves are already under pressure after just five months in office, with disputes centering largely on – you guessed it – the budget.

Why are national budgets suddenly so controversial?

In the eurozone, post-pandemic fiscal rules are putting even essentially the most restrictive EU members under pressure.

France, Italy and Greece have long been seen as violating fiscal rules. However, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands are actually also violating the EU's deficit rules, which require countries to take care of a deficit ratio of three% and a debt ratio of 60% in relation to their GDP.

The European Commission, the EU's executive branch, now judges a budget not only by its financial plans for the approaching 12 months, but additionally by its impact on the long-term development of every country's deficit.

In Paris, Barnier's try and push through his 60 billion euros ($63 billion) in tax hikes and spending cuts by activating Article 49.3 of the French structure appears to make him the shortest-serving French prime minister since 1958.

Political risk has driven French stocks lower while driving borrowing costs to levels not seen because the euro zone debt crisis last decade.

Over in Berlin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz paid a surprise visit to Kyiv on MondayHe promised an arms deal value 650 million euros with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The move caused a stir in Germany as the federal government's aid to Ukraine was at the middle of disagreements throughout the coalition.

The collapse of this government could have longer-term effects on Germany's fiscal rules. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz said he would consider a review of the once-sacred lending rules.

There is further budgetary damage across the Channel, where business confidence has fallen to its lowest level because the Covid-19 pandemic and manufacturing has slowed sharply since Reeves announced her tax hike plans.

It appears that the impact of a supposedly “bad budget” is resulting in political losses in a way that Europe can have to contend with for the foreseeable future.

Edmund Shing, global chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, stressed that stagnation and instability are gripping Europe because the US gains clarity after the election and President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House next month.

“This lack of political security at the core, at the heart of Europe, comes at probably the worst time politically that it could be,” he told CNBC's “Squawk Box Europe” earlier this week.

Flights between the US and Europe haven't been this low cost in three years, just as many countries were lifting Covid-19-era rules.

Even within the traditionally slow late fall and winter months outside of major holidays, fares are low.

“It's brutal to fill seats this time of year,” said Brett Snyder, author for the travel industry site Cranky Flier.

According to flight tracking firm Hopper, “cheap” fares across the Atlantic to Europe averaged $578 in November, down from $619 last 12 months.

It's the bottom deal fare for this month since 2021, after they were $479 and far international travel was in a lull as a consequence of the pandemic, Hopper data shows.

In January, after the year-end holiday, 2025 rates are even lower: $558 in comparison with $578 the identical month in 2024, but higher than $488 in January 2022, in line with Hopper.

On the opposite hand, US domestic flights are dearer in every month from November to March in comparison with last 12 months.

Many airlines are running into financial difficulties Spirit Airlines too profitable Southwest Airlines have cut flights or trimmed growth plans for next 12 months, which has helped keep U.S. fares stable. The shortage of aircraft can be stopping airlines from offering many flights.

There are also some periods of overall weaker demand, executives at the biggest U.S. airlines said, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines And American Airlines have said and called for within the week before and after the US presidential election on Tuesday.

Airlines have been scrambling so as to add seats between the U.S. and Europe to satisfy post-pandemic travel demand.

This build-up did not only happen in the height months. Executives noted that they’re seeing stronger demand for Europe during shoulder seasons, as travelers expect Escape the scorching summer temperatures and crowds. Therefore, off-peak flights were also added.

According to Cirium, flight capability between the US and Europe within the fourth quarter is barely lower than last 12 months, but higher than in 2019 and almost twice as high as in the identical period in 2021.

“I expect airfare [to Europe] “The forecast will be low next year,” said Hayley Berg, chief economist at Hopper.

Now, after two big years of European travel, many shoppers have freshly returned from their big trips to popular destinations comparable to Spain and Italy, meaning there are fewer people to fill their seats within the off-season.

“It's not like there's as much low-hanging fruit and that airlines can print money as quickly as they did last year,” said Scott Keyes, founding father of travel app Going, formerly often known as Scott's Cheap Flights .

Traditionally, airlines discount their flights within the off-season, but this 12 months they’re even cheaper.

“That’s the truth,” Keyes said. “If they have to discount, they have to meet demand.”

To ensure travelers don't get bored in Europe's fundamental destinations as peak warm-weather travel approaches next 12 months, airlines try recent things. United Airlines has noted that many shoppers have already taken trips to major European cities and the airline plans to expand its schedule to more distant destinations comparable to Greenland and Mongolia next 12 months.

“We can do just as well financially outside of our partner hubs,” Andrew Nocella, United’s chief business officer, said on an earnings call last month. “So we look around the globe, we look for new destinations, we look for hot destinations and destinations, and most importantly, we can make money there.”

European politicians and policymakers are busy preparing for more American protectionism, no matter who emerges as the following head of the White House after next week's election.

The presidential race has remained a dead heat in recent days, with polls consistently showing the candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, tied in key battleground states and across the country.

“Whoever wins will be 'America first,'” a senior European diplomat, who didn’t need to be identified due to sensitive nature of the transatlantic relationship, told CNBC last week.

“The main concern of Americans is the economy, and the answer has to be more economic nationalism – I don't agree with that, but I don't see a way out of it,” said the senior diplomat, who’s collaborating in confidential talks between EU leaders.

The comments come after a warning from German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who told CNBC on Friday that there could possibly be retaliation if the U.S. starts a trade war with the European Union.

“In this case, we need diplomatic efforts to convince everyone who enters the White House that it is not in the best interests of the United States to have a trade conflict with them.” [the] European Union,” he said on the IMF annual meeting in Washington, DC

Trade with the United States is amazingly necessary to European nations. The EU and the USA have this largest bilateral trade and investment relationship on this planetwhich reached an all-time high of 1.2 trillion euros ($1.29 trillion) in 2021, based on the European Commission, the EU's executive body.

Harris is predicted to proceed to some extent President Joe Biden's policies, remembered in economic terms in Europe by the Inflation Reduction Act – a sweeping US law value $369 billion , which targets climate and energy policy. The IRA angered many European leaders resulting from its protectionist nature.

The “America First” policy is prone to have a greater impact on European economies under a Republican presidency. Trump has threatened to impose additional blanket tariffs of 10% on European products, which could weigh on the bloc's exporters and weaken them, based on data from Goldman Sachs the euro by as much as 10%.

Trump's first term within the White House was a difficult time for some European leaders, who expressed distaste for the previous president's style and confrontational tone. The two sides often had different views on trade, defense and technology, amongst other issues.

“Trump can't surprise us anymore, we know how to deal with it, we've had to deal with him before,” the anonymous senior diplomat also told CNBC.

A second EU official, who also asked to not be named resulting from the sensitive nature of U.S. relations, told CNBC: “There is no panic. We are very pragmatic, but of course we have to prepare for both scenarios.”

The same official added that the European Commission is working on “bold” initiatives no matter who becomes the following president.

CNBC reported in May 2023 that European officials were already quietly preparing for the potential of Trump's return. This meant specializing in reducing dependencies on the US and China – something EU leaders proceed to strive for.

In an October statement, the EU's 27 heads of state called for “more efforts to improve the Union's competitiveness, strengthen its economic resilience, ensure its industrial renewal and realize the full potential of the internal market.”

“It underlines the urgency of taking effective action,” the statement continued.

Apart from the European institutions in Brussels, there’s some disagreement in the assorted EU capitals regarding the US presidency. National leaders expressed various opinions about the potential of a second Trump presidency.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban reportedly said this to journalists in Brussels This month he revealed he would open “several bottles of champagne” when Trump returns to the White House. Just two days after U.S. voters go to the polls, EU leaders are expected to satisfy within the Hungarian capital Budapest and certain discuss the election final result over dinner.

A 3rd EU official, who didn’t need to be named and shall be attending the meetings in Budapest, told CNBC: “I definitely won't celebrate if Trump wins.” The same official added that the U.S. election was “very worrying “is because it “amounts to 200 votes”. [swing state] Pennsylvania.”

The official added that whatever the final result, “it will not be a shock like last time, and Europe has since improved its strategic autonomy and defense spending.”

Europe should avoid regulating artificial intelligence and as an alternative focus its attention on the technology's results, based on the CEO of the German enterprise tech giant JUICE said CNBC on Tuesday.

Christian Klein, who has held the highest job at SAP since April 2020, said Europe risks falling behind the US and China if it over-regulates the AI ​​sector.

Although it’s important to mitigate the risks related to AI, Klein argued that it will be misguided to control the technology while it continues to be in its infancy.

“It is very important that the way we train our algorithms, the AI ​​use cases that we integrate into our customers’ businesses – they have to deliver the right result for employees and for society,” Klein said on Tuesday on CNBC's “Squawk Box Europe.” .

“If you only regulate technology in Europe, how can our startups here in Europe compete with the other startups in China, in Asia, in the USA?” Klein added.

“Especially for the startup scene here in Europe, it is very important to think about the results of the technology, but not to regulate the AI ​​technology itself.”

Instead, Klein argued, firms need a more harmonized, pan-European approach to pressing problems reminiscent of the energy crisis and digital transformation – and fewer regulation overall, no more.

His comments got here after SAP reported record third-quarter profits late Monday. Shares of the software provider rose greater than 4% to a record high.

The software giant reported total revenue of 8.5 billion euros ($9.2 billion) within the quarter, up 9% year-on-year, as cloud product sales rose 25%.

SAP has raised its outlook for cloud and software revenue, operating profit and free money flow for 2024. The German company has been working towards the transition to cloud computing over the past decade.

In 2016, SAP acquired Concur, the company travel and expense platform, in hopes that the software would move to the cloud.

More recently, SAP has made AI a key focus of its technique to reposition itself for faster growth after higher rates of interest and macroeconomic headwinds depressed technology spending and led to industry-wide layoffs.

In January, SAP announced a restructuring plan affecting over 7% of its global workforce – or the equivalent of 8,000 jobs.