The euro is predicted to succeed in parity with the dollar

Tariffs, rates of interest and a powerful economy

The euro has suffered greater than most from Trump's victory and we doubt it can ease any time soon.

James Reilly

Senior Market Economist at Capital Economics

The semi-finals of the 2024 European Championship have been decided.

After France and Spain secured a spot within the last 4 yesterday, England and the Netherlands followed them with victories today.

Both quarter-finals were close and dramatic in other ways. England once more looked tedious and unimaginative for much of their match against Switzerland, but they prevailed because of Bukayo Saka's sensible individual goal – which cancelled out Breel Embolo's opener – and a few heroics within the penalty shoot-out.

The Dutch, meanwhile, overcame a deficit against Turkey to succeed in their first European Championship semi-final in 20 years. This means the team will face England in Dortmund on Wednesday.

Our authors analyze crucial topics of debate.

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England's penalty secret? It's all in regards to the bottle

At first there didn't appear to be much in there.

Cole Palmer had just scored England's first penalty within the shoot-out against Switzerland and Manuel Akanji strolled forward to reply. Jordan Pickford, the England goalkeeper, also trotted over before suddenly turning around.

Pickford had forgotten something – his water bottle, which was oddly wrapped in a towel. After picking it up, he walked back to his goal and placed the bottle, still within the towel, next to the side netting.

After making Akanji wait a little bit longer by moving forward to examine the penalty spot, Pickford settled on his goal line. Akanji took a brief run-up and fired the ball along with his right foot, but Pickford was one step ahead of him. He lunged to his left, saved the penalty and England had a lead they’d never relinquish.

Luck? Not necessarily. In fact, this was a triumph of deception by England and their team of analysts, who had studied every Swiss player's penalty, noted where they sometimes took it and printed out their results for Pickford to stay on his water bottle.

The evaluation was captured by a photographer on the spot, but Pickford took no risks within the moments before Akanji's penalty – hence his decision to wrap the bottle within the towel.

And England's coaching staff had clearly done their homework well. They had realised that Akanji was prone to shoot to the precise, so Pickford could best take his possibilities by drifting to the left – which he did.

Having got it right the primary time, it was surprising that Pickford didn’t follow the recommendation of his bottle on all penalties.

Fabian Schar took the second, but as an alternative of feigning to leap to the precise after which actually jumping to the left – as his bottle suggested – Pickford did the other, feigning to the left and jumping to the precise. Schar's penalty, because the bottle had predicted, landed to his right, where the goal was empty.

Pickford let his strategy run wild on the last two Swiss penalties: Xherdan Shaqiri shot to the precise, but was too well placed and his shot narrowly eluded Pickford's fingertips.

The only penalty where the bottle turned out to be incorrect was awarded to Zeki Amdouni on the fourth shot. Pickford stood firm and jumped low to the left as he had been instructed, but Amdouni outsmarted him by going right.

Fortunately for England, that one save was enough and if their semi-final against the Netherlands on Wednesday also goes the total distance, it should be no surprise if Pickford's bottle and towel make one other appearance.

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Saka is the star – but where is Kane?

When Saka starts well, England starts well. He was England's best player in the primary half against Serbia within the opening game of Euro 2024, when he repeatedly beat defender Andrija Zivkovic, and he was again today.

It was no coincidence that today's first half was England's best since they began the tournament almost three weeks ago. Saka, moving high and wide in what looked almost like a 3-4-3 formation, faced left-back Michel Aebischer, and he easily outplayed him.

In the primary half, Saka often took advantage of the incontrovertible fact that England were getting the ball to him much quicker than they’d against Slovakia the previous round. Saka got into good positions, delivered crosses and compelled corners. The only frustrating thing was that England were never in a position to convert these crosses into serious shots on goal.

Striker Harry Kane, who tended to drop back throughout the sport and played in defence at times within the second half, was unable to convert any of Saka's passes. Kane was substituted in overtime after unintentionally colliding with England manager Gareth Southgate on the touchline.

Without the ball, Saka needed to run back and mark Ruben Vargas, but he did so diligently. And when England needed him most, Saka scored the decisive equaliser just when his team seemed completely out of ideas.

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Can the Netherlands make it to the tip?

An unconvincing series, a coach not many persons are convinced of, a number of wins where they got here from behind and the sensation that ending in the highest half of the draw is the one reason they’re within the semi-finals… in England's case, that’s, the Netherlands.

And now here they’re, within the semi-finals of the European Championship for the primary time since 2004. So how good are their probabilities of winning only the second major tournament of their history?

Well, Turkey exploited their weaknesses in today's quarter-final, especially in set pieces and crosses, while Austria exploited their poorly organised defence and relegated them to 3rd place within the group stage. But the Dutch even have quite a bit to supply.

When they’re confident and on top form, displaying calm and intensity, they might be great to observe, similar to England did, as was the case of their 3-0 win over Romania within the Round of 16.

Tonight they’d to point out determination and fighting spirit… and likewise some tactical skill from coach Ronald Koeman along with his substitutions within the second half.

Cody Gakpo, who has scored three goals, is clearly a threat (Turkey were coping with him well until he snuck in on the back post to use a weak defence and add to the winning goal via a Mert Muldur own goal). When given time and space in midfield, Jerdy Schouten, Tijjani Reijnders and Xavi Simons can play – after which some.

Denzel Dumfries is all the time a threat as a full-back with plenty of pace after which there’s the massive Wout Weghorst, who could cause some aerial battles from the bench.

England may have quite a bit to take into consideration.

In its current form, the semi-final in Dortmund on Wednesday is simply too exciting to predict a winner.

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Güler leaves … as a star

While a youngster from Barcelona – Spaniard Lamine Yamal – has rightly attracted attention along with his outstanding performances throughout the tournament, a player from arch-rivals Real Madrid has proven equally exciting.

Turkey's Arda Güler didn’t play too often for Madrid last season, mainly resulting from injury, but he finished his debut yr on the Bernabeu in fabulous form (five goals in five games) and took this momentum with him to Euro 2024.

His second assist of the tournament today against the Netherlands was beautiful. Turkey and Güler had come into the sport after a slow start through a series of dangerous set pieces that the Dutch struggled to cope with and the primary goal was a continuation of that.

Receiving a cleared corner on the precise side of the box, Güler was desirous to play the ball onto his preferred left foot and fire it into the box.

With no angle to achieve this, the 19-year-old, who also hit the post with a free kick within the second half, reluctantly swung along with his right… and delivered a fantastic cross that completely stunned goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen, who looked like someone who had half-crossed a road only to recoil and hesitate when he saw a bike speeding towards him.

Verbruggen neither jumped as much as win the ball nor ran back to the goal line. He was helpless. Samet Akaydin stepped up on the back post, playing only due to Merih Demiral's suspension, and headed the ball effortlessly into the online.

The tournament could also be over for Güler, but one can feel that this is barely the start of a superb profession for his club and his country.

What's next?

• Spain vs France (Tuesday, 8pm BST; 3pm ET)
• Netherlands vs England (Wednesday, 8pm BST; 3pm ET)

Follow the live coverage of Switzerland vs. Italy And Germany vs Denmark at Euro 2024 today

The European Championship was beer-soaked. In the fan zones and in front of the stadiums. In the stands and within the halls.

Everyone was soaked. Fans, players and – to the nice amusement of those not wearing lanyards – journalists who hid their laptops under a roof and got here to press conferences dripping with alcohol.

Get the little violins. Maybe a towel.

We must talk in regards to the plastic cups that rain down from the stands on anyone taking a corner kick or goal kick.

But first the beer.

The official sponsor of the tournament is the German brewery Bitburger, and the bars within the hall are stocked exclusively with their products. At matches within the Allianz Arena, for instance, Pils, Radler and a non-alcoholic beer cost €7 for 500ml. At matches in Cologne, on the RheinEnergieStadion, they serve Kölsch, the sweet beer that is frequently served in small, cylindrical glasses. There aren’t any limits on how much people can purchase, and fans can drink anywhere within the stadium.

With exceptions.

At England's group match against Serbia in Gelsenkirchen, only beer with two percent alcohol was served, as a substitute of the same old 4.8 percent. The game was considered a high-risk match. Other special measures were also taken, including a ban on alcohol within the stands. It is currently unclear whether England's round of 16 match against Slovakia in Gelsenkirchen on Sunday will probably be subject to the identical restrictions.

But even with the lower alcohol content, most traveling fans enjoy a distinct level of freedom in terms of drinking than they do at home.

Since 1985, fans of the Football League in England have been banned from drinking alcohol “within sight of the pitch.” In Scotland, the principles are even stricter: alcohol consumption in stadiums will not be permitted in any respect.

In Spain, only non-alcoholic beer is allowed. In France, alcohol sales in stadiums are prohibited during Ligue 1 matches. In Serbia, bars around stadiums are only allowed to serve alcohol as much as two hours before kick-off.

And then there’s Germany.

UEFA's approach to running tournaments is to adapt food and drinks rules to local laws, and in Germany alcohol is an everyday feature on Bundesliga match days. There could also be restrictions on high-risk games, as happened at Euro 2024, that will not be unusual, but there can be something fundamentally un-German about not with the ability to watch the football match with a drink in hand.

Of course, clubs make numerous money from beer sales; just about all of them in the highest two leagues have a brewery as a sponsor. Schalke's Veltins Arena has a famous 5km pipeline connecting the stadium to an area brewery, so every weekend beer sprays out of German stands. Watch Borussia Dortmund's Yellow Wall when a goal is scored; in the appropriate light and from the appropriate angle, it may appear like the entire stand is crying with joy.

There were fears about this. For example, the British Foreign Office issued a warning in regards to the alcohol content of German lager before the English fans travelled to Germany. But the fears of excessive consumption have to this point not come true. There have been few arrests and, although many fans spent long days in sun-drenched beer gardens, there was little unrest.

spoke to a steward on the Allianz Arena on Tuesday evening. He said that he and his team had hardly experienced any problems with the players' behavior through the tournament. They had been vigilant. So far every part goes well, although high-proof alcohol was served on the games in Munich, that are all considered high-risk games.

The plastic cups are a nuisance, nevertheless, and will be found in all places – even at press conferences. On Tuesday evening, Dragan Stojkovic was asked whether Serbian fans who threw them at Danish goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel had caused an unnecessary distraction and thus contributed to his team's elimination after a goalless draw.

“Please ask me about football,” Stojkovic pleaded.

Three nations have been fined to this point for fans throwing objects onto the pitch – Croatia, Scotland and Albania – and more are set to follow. When France played the Netherlands within the group stage, Antoine Griezmann needed to dodge a hail of beer mugs at a corner. Against Switzerland, Germany's Toni Kroos was similarly bombarded in the primary half in Frankfurt, as was Italy's Lorenzo Pellegrini against Croatia.

Before the match in Leipzig, some fans and journalists within the lower tiers were hit from above by plastic cups. Later, the ball actually hit someone that had landed on the pitch. When Schmeichel scored on Tuesday evening, substitute Yussuf Poulsen had to assist clear the penalty area within the incident about which Stojkovic was questioned.

When Gareth Southgate approached the fans after the ultimate whistle of England's 0-0 draw with Slovenia, they reacted with boos and plastic sheets; the English Football Association must expect a tremendous.

Is UEFA planning to take motion?

When asked in regards to the beer mugs, a spokesman said on Tuesday that they might wait for full reports before making any decisions. There is a few movement, but we will not be quite sure what yet.

Plastic cups will not be often such a giant nuisance in Germany. In March 2022, a match between Bochum and Borussia Mönchengladbach was abandoned after an assistant referee was hit in the pinnacle by a beer cup. In 2023, a 3. Liga match between Zwickau and Rot-Weiss Essen was abandoned at halftime when a beer was thrown in a referee's face. However, such incidents are rare, which might be partly as a result of changes within the law.

In 2023, many German stadiums began introducing reusable cups. In participating stadiums, fans pay a deposit for a cup outside the stadium and might get it back after the match by returning their cup. Bayern Munich has had such a policy since 2018/19, but many other clubs have adopted it in subsequent years. The environmental impact is one consequence. The willingness of fans to maintain their cups and deposit is one other.

The atmosphere through the Euro 2024 matches has been excellent to this point. With a couple of exceptions, fans enjoyed being together. They filled the stadiums and city centres with noise and joy, and although there was occasional hostility, the atmosphere was benevolent and stuffed with friendly rivalry.

Given that there hasn't been a football tournament in mainland Europe without Covid-19 restrictions for a few years, this assessment makes little sense. Many appear to be treating the tournament like a vacation and are determined to take advantage of the experience, although there have been some tiring organisational issues within the opening days.

Fans often only make headlines once they misbehave. At this tournament, which has seen dramatic improvements but still has queues and delays, they deserve credit for what they’ve made Euro 2024. Colourful, atmospheric, festival-like.

The freedom to rejoice was also a part of it.

There is a reason: on the very moment when Gareth Southgate and his players were being pelted with obscenities and plastic cups in Cologne on Tuesday, all of Britain's leading bookmakers were lowering the percentages for England to win the 2024 European Championship.

It had nothing to do with a sudden surge in optimism or a flurry of betting activity. Who would put money on an England win after that?

The reason for this was the best way the tournament was being arrange: the percentages for England were reduced, as were those for Italy, Austria and Switzerland. The odds for a French, Spanish, German or Portuguese title fell accordingly.

If there have been a free draw after the group stage, as is the case in European club competitions, it will be difficult to get past Spain, Germany, Portugal and – given their poor performance up to now – the tournament favourites France.

But the trail was predetermined. The knockout rounds seemed unbalanced even before kick-off. The imbalance was further exacerbated by France's failure to win its group and now find themselves in the highest half of the round alongside Spain, Germany, Portugal and Denmark. Belgium could also find yourself there in the event that they finish second or third in Group E.

On paper, the underside quarter of the table looks pretty strong: Switzerland face Italy in Berlin on Saturday; England face a third-placed team (probably the Netherlands) on Sunday. But Switzerland, Italy and England have each won one game within the group stage. Add within the Netherlands (or whoever finishes third in Group E – Romania, Belgium, Slovakia or Ukraine) and that's 4 wins out of a possible 12.

To be clear, in the underside quarter of the draw, a team that has won only once within the group stage will reach the semi-finals – where, within the worst case scenario, they’d face Austria, Belgium or the Netherlands. The almost definitely semi-final constellations in the opposite half of the draw can be Spain or Germany against Portugal or France.

Southgate said on Tuesday, after a disastrous 0-0 draw with Slovenia, that England could have been lucky with the best way the knockout stages have turned out. “We shouldn't be seduced by half the draw,” the manager told ITV Sport. “We have to take it step by step. Tonight was an improvement. We have to improve to win the next round.”

In his post-match press conference, it was made clear to him that England had finished on the opposite side of the table to Germany, France, Spain and Portugal. “We have a lot of respect for all the teams you mentioned, but there are some very good teams on our side of the draw as well,” he said.

But to not the identical extent. As on the 2018 World Cup, luck was on England's side and all the opposite teams that finished on that side of the table – not least Austria, who can rightly say they took their luck into their very own hands by ending ahead of France and the Netherlands.

In 2018, five of the highest six teams within the knockout rounds (Brazil, Belgium, Portugal, Argentina and France) ended up on one side of the draw, while the opposite half consisted of Spain (which had won only considered one of its three group matches), Russia, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Colombia and England.

This World Cup was widely seen as Belgium's best probability to win a serious tournament, with lots of the 'golden generation' players at the height of their powers. But they paid a heavy price for winning Group G, beating Japan and Brazil but losing to France within the semi-finals. England's prize for ending second to Belgium of their group was a spot in the better a part of the draw, which saw them beat Colombia and Sweden before losing to Croatia within the semi-finals.

An identical imbalance prevailed at Euro 2016. Antonio Conte's Italy shone within the group stage, but the value of winning Group E was a tougher opponent. They beat Spain 2-0 but lost to Germany on penalties within the quarter-finals. Germany lost to hosts France within the semi-finals. Portugal, meanwhile – who had secured third place in Group F by drawing with Iceland, Austria and Hungary – reached the ultimate by beating Croatia within the round of 16, Poland within the quarter-finals and Wales within the semi-finals.

Some competitions are based on a free draw, comparable to the FA Cup. Others, comparable to the NFL or NBA, rank teams in keeping with their leads to the regular season, which should, in theory, be sure that the 2 strongest teams in a conference find yourself on opposite sides of the draw.

Things are different in international football competitions – including the World Cup, the European Championship, the Copa America, the Africa Cup of Nations and the Asian Cup of Nations. The teams are already determined on the draw: the winner of Group A plays against the runner-up of Group B, the winner of Group C against the runner-up of Group D and so forth.

The group stage draw is predicated on seedings, but teams are randomly assigned to every group, increasing the potential of an uneven finish within the knockout rounds. With tournaments compressed right into a 4 or five week period and matches happening within the host country, it is useful to have a pre-established structure for planning, travel and ensuring each team gets enough rest between matches.

However, there are inconsistencies. Austria has a seven-day break between the tip of the group matches on Tuesday and the round of 16 next Tuesday, while Spain's round of 16 opponent (who has yet to be determined) only has a four-day break.

Everything in knockout football is variable. But you may predict with some certainty that a team that performed miserably at Euro 2024 will reach the semi-finals or, probably, the ultimate. After a difficult group stage, England, Switzerland, Italy and others have made a soft landing. For considered one of them, it could even be a springboard.

When Callum Styles sat down for a routine pre-match interview with Barnsley's internal media team a number of years ago, he decided there was something he desired to add to the conversation.

In the vocabulary of the football reporter, it was a request: “Come and get me.”

But this time, in October 2020, it was different. Instead of batting his eyelashes, Styles, a promising young English midfielder, desired to announce that he was eligible to play international football for Hungary or Ukraine – “just put it out there,” he recalls. The athlete“and hope that something comes out of it.”

Nothing happened for weeks. “And then… you know how everything spreads through social media these days?” he says. “That's basically what happened. It caught fire.”

The story was picked up by a sports website in Budapest. The Hungarian Football Association contacted Barnsley and was put in contact with Styles' agent, who confirmed the story and revealed further details concerning the player's parentage. Hungary began monitoring him – initially from afar because of Covid-19 travel restrictions – after which, suitably impressed, began to analyze further.

Styles had envisioned a call-up to Hungary's U21 national team as a primary step. But after overcoming the assorted bureaucratic hurdles, he was called up on to the senior national team and made his international debut against Serbia in Budapest in March 2022. Three months later, he was a part of the Hungarian team that crushed England 4-0 within the Nations League – “a unique moment after which you have to pinch yourself and think: 'Wow, did that actually happen?'”

The 24-year-old, who spent last season on loan at Sunderland, has 22 caps for Hungary and the whole lot, he said, has gone thoroughly. He is confident of starting Saturday's opening game against Switzerland in Cologne after overcoming an injury scare in last Saturday's final warm-up game against Israel (a 3-0 win).

He loves playing for Hungary. He can't wait for the European Championships. But he won't pretend he grew up eating goulash while listening to stories by Ferenc Puskas and Franz Liszt's rhapsodies playing within the background.

On the contrary, he grew up knowing nothing of any connection to the country he proudly represents today.

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Growing up in Middleton, Greater Manchester, Styles knew that his mother's parents, Jan and Magdolna, were originally from Eastern Europe, but he didn't know where from.

“As a child, I didn't really look at all of this,” he says. “I just played and enjoyed life. You play with your toys or go out with your friends. I didn't talk about these conversations until later.”

“I always went to my grandma's because she lived just around the corner from my mom and dad. I came over twice a week and she always cooked chicken noodle soup. But she died when I had just finished elementary school.”

By his late teens, he was an expert footballer and making a powerful impression in Barnsley's first team when he discovered more about how Jan and Magdolna had moved to the UK from Ukraine and Hungary respectively “in their early twenties”. Details of Jan's past in Ukraine were sketchy – “we couldn't find his old passport” – but more was known about Magdolna.

Styles and his girlfriend planned to go to Hungary in the course of the international break in March 2020, but that plan was thwarted by the pandemic. When he finally made it to Budapest two years later, it was his first time on Hungarian soil to affix the national team.

It was daunting at first, especially because he didn't know a word of Hungarian (which he has since began improving with Duolingo). But his latest teammates welcomed him from the beginning. They didn't expect him to know the national anthem – he can now sing it – but were impressed when he sang 50 Cent's Candy Shop during an initiation ceremony.

He wasn't the one player within the squad who qualified based on his dual citizenship. Hertha Berlin winger Palko Dardai was born in Germany to former Hungarian international Pal Dardai, who played for and coached Hertha. RB Leipzig defender Willi Orban was born in Germany but had a Hungarian father. Le Havre full-back Loic Nego played for his native France from the U16s to the U20s but became a Hungarian citizen after greater than five years. And Bournemouth full-back Milos Kerkez was born in Serbia but, like Styles, had a Hungarian grandmother.

“And our manager (Marco Rossi) is Italian,” says Styles. “He explained to me how warmly he was welcomed, even though he is neither Hungarian nor has Hungarian roots. And many of the meetings are held in English, which has helped me a lot. The guys talk to me and are really warm.”

“But just the trip to this country was a wonderful experience. And my debut was even better. Settling in was much easier than I thought. I immediately felt at home.”

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In the recent past, a player who had learned of his eligibility to play for Hungary would have had little or no probability of participating in a serious tournament.

Hungary was one among the giants of world football in the course of the era of the “Magic Magyars” within the Fifties and Nineteen Sixties, and its participation within the 1986 World Cup was the country’s last participation in a serious tournament for 3 many years.

However, that is their third European Championship in a row. Qualification was made easier by the expansion of the competition to 24 teams, but Hungary's improvement in performance is undeniable. They won their qualifying group without losing a game. In total, that they had gone 14 games unbeaten until they lost 2-1 to the Republic of Ireland of their penultimate warm-up match.

When UEFA launched its Nations League competition in 2018, Hungary played within the third division, together with Estonia and Lithuania. Last season they finished second in a primary division group, winning away against Germany (1-0) and beating England at home (1-0) and away (4-0). Qualification for the European Championships was secured by an injury-time equaliser in Bulgaria. They flew back to Budapest, drove into the town centre and celebrated all night – players and fans alike. “Crazy,” recalled Styles.

“We've done so well as a team and improved game by game, year by year,” he says. “When we beat England, it was a bit like 'wow'. The coach (Rossi) has changed a lot. There's been a lot of progress since he started. I think we're a good team.”

The star of the team is Liverpool midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai. “He's a world-class player, a leader,” says Styles. “In training camp he's pretty laid back. But on the pitch he brings that little extra, that X-factor that you need sometimes when the game is a bit boring and you need someone to create some magic and force a 1-0 win or whatever.”

“But we are a team. We don't get carried away, but we should be confident because we have shown that we can compete against the top teams. Of course, these games can go either way because of the pressure of the European Championship, but we have a really good team. Hopefully we can progress.”

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Styles might be within the shop window in Germany and can look to construct on his positive loan spell at Sunderland by securing a everlasting transfer from Barnsley – who lost to Bolton Wanderers within the League One play-off semi-finals – this summer.

He has enjoyed his time at Sunderland but is unsure of their plans as no latest manager has been appointed yet. If not Sunderland then he hopes to return to the Championship with one other club.

But his club ambitions are on hold. “I'm concentrating on international football: the European Championship and on doing my best for Hungary,” he says. “The rest will work itself out.”

His parents, his girlfriend and a few friends will even travel to Germany. Will all of them learn the national anthem? “They already know it,” he says. “We'll sing it.”

One of his aunts, who lives in Hungary, has been to some home games, but he's unsure if she'll have the opportunity to come back to Germany. He hopes so. Regardless, Styles is looking forward to the experience – each on a deeper personal level and on an expert one.

A flag of convenience? Maybe at first, but he has adopted his second nationality. When he puts on the Hungarian jersey, he thinks of his grandmother and wonders what she would have considered him wearing the colors of her country.

“It's special for my mother's family to see me as a representative of our bloodline,” he says. “It's an honor to play for Hungary. It's in my DNA.”