policy

Washington – As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump promised an economic “boom like no other”.

But eight weeks after his presidency is Trump Wean to rule out a recession – A striking change in the sound and the message for a man who rode widespread economic dissatisfaction with the White House by promising “making America affordable again”.

His comments come when the stock market fell – the S&P 500 fell back by 2.7% on Monday after they had dropped by 3.1% last week – and the managing directors are frightened by uncertainty about its tariffs. Even some Republicans who fear retaliation when they cross Trump have started to make concerns about his taxes.

The moment is a fundamental challenge for Trump, a showman who makes absolute and comprehensive promises that inevitably encounter the reality of governance.

The economy, which Trump inherited, was in a solid form, with low unemployment, moderate growth and an inflation rate, which is still higher than the Federal Reserve, but had decreased considerably. But the uncertainty that his guidelines were injected into the prospects is a terrifying contrast to the picture that Trump painted on the campaign path.

“We will start a new era of increasing income,” said Trump in October at a rally. “Spring wealth. Millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We will boom as if we have never drilled before. “

This vow of creating an economic boom has become conflict with the most popular economic instrument of the president: tariffs. He also promised this during the campaign and, as economists warned, the main drivers of the cloudy economic outlook in the country. Forecasts by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs say that a recession has become more likely next year due to Trump’s tariffs.

So far, the president seems to try to reduce expectations. In an interview that was broadcast on Fox News on Sunday, Trump was decreased when he asked Maria Bartiromo if he was expecting a recession this year.

“I hate to predict such things,” he said. “There is a time of transition, because what we do is very big. We bring prosperity back to America. That is a big deal. And there are always periods of, it takes a little. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us. “

In his speech last week, Trump admitted to a joint congress meeting that would cause tariffs “a little disorder”. But he said: “We agree. It won’t be much. “

Even if the markets are falling, Revolt expresses the world leaders and the managing directors, Trump has made it clear that he has no plans to shift his tariff strategy. He imposed broad tariffs in Canada, Mexico and China last week and swore to get more in front of the next month. But Trump, who has one People to change positions from a moodConversely, a few tariffs and could do this again.

“Look, our country has been torn down for many decades for many decades, and we are no longer torn down,” said Trump in Fox News.

Trump, who called the opening bell on the New York Stock Exchange in December monitor the stock exchange. In his first term, he regularly pointed out a wealthy stock market as proof of his success. Many managing directors gathered behind Trump’s campaign because they were convinced that he would prioritize their economic interests, but now priority Some managing directors And Small business owner complain about the economic pain that will bring his tariffs. The president can hear these concerns directly from the top CEOs if he meets with members of the Business Roundtable on Tuesday.

On Monday, when the stock exchange had its worst day since December, the White House official tried to redirect the conversation.

“Since President Trump was elected, the industry leaders have reacted to the American first economic agenda of Zöllen, Deregulation of President Trump and unleashing American energy with trillions of investment obligations that create thousands of new jobs,” said Kush Desai, a spokesman for the White House. “President Trump delivered historical work, wages and investment growth in his first term in office and will do so again in his second term.”

In the past few days, Trump’s top consultant has tried to calm the markets and managing directors. Minister of Commerce Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that there was no chance of recession. Finance Minister Scott Bessent was not so relentless and said on Friday that there would be a “natural adaptation” because the economy goes through the support of the state spending.

“The full press of the President and his surrogacy this weekend signals that they are strongly under pressure from the people they hear-the share market, the Republican legislator and the managing directors,” said Kate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director at McLarty Associates, an advisory company.

Kalutkiewicz, who worked in the first Trump office in the National Economic Council, said that the president and his adjutants’ comments indicate that they do not plan to change the course in response to the growing chorus.

Stephen Moore, an economist at the Heritage Foundation, which is a former Trump former business advisor, said the topic of the president was the time. Moore said Trump should have been waiting for the congress to pass tax cuts to introduce tariffs.

“Let’s boom the economy again and then talk about tariffs,” he said. “I think there must be a certain priority shift.”

Senator Ron Wyden, D-ORE., Who is the ranking member of the Senate Financing Committee, said that the Trump government’s approach to tariffs was “poison” for the US economy.

“The chaos that you create every day is basically an anchor that is connected to the American economy, and more and more of our workers will pull under water the longer,” he said in an interview. “We try to stop them.

The question that depends on Washington is how long Trump can create a declining stock market – and the resulting negative media reporting that accompanies it.

“I don’t know,” said Moore. “It’s a good question. I am sure that the president is concerned about the losses on the stock exchange in the last 10 days. We are all. “

The organization's history dates back to the Seventies, when farmers decided to sell their products to greater than just packers. In 1976, Harvest Time Inc. was founded and welcomed any farm or ranch in Contra Costa County that wanted to hitch.

Eventually it increased its membership and developed a trail map that’s published annually. We spoke with CEO Jessica Enos about harvest season in Brentwood. Your responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Q Tell us about harvest season in Brentwood and U-Pick.

A Harvest Time was founded within the late Seventies and originally had 10 farm members. U-Pick actually began here (in Brentwood) within the Forties during World War II when some rations were issued and a number of the rations were sugar. The women didn't wish to waste the rations, in order that they began canning sugar, but they needed fruit. So they got here from Fremont to Brentwood.

This is the story I used to be told. So they found Brentwood and got here to the farmers and acquired apricots and peaches, they usually were in a position to buy quite a bit, and it showed the farmer, “Hey, these women would rather get the product directly from us, and that's what they wanted.” to return out and picking.” That’s how U-Pick began. We worked with a historian and discovered that we now have the oldest U-Pick west of the Appalachians that continues to be in operation today. We even have essentially the most U-Picks in a small radius within the country.

Q Harvest Time in Brentwood creates an academic farm trail map. What is that this trail map and the way has it helped local farms?

A In the late '70s, several farmers had U-Picks they usually thought: How can we get the word out about this to get more people to go to our farms and proceed this U-Pick tradition? There were 10 participating farms, they got here together and created the trail map, a physical map that we still produce today. And they (the farmers) sent it out and took it to all places to advertise their farms.

So the identical idea continues to be being implemented today. We now have over 60 farm members. We have a number of the individuals who originally began Harvest Time in Brentwood – their grandchildren or nieces or nephews – on our board. Part of the map has evolved from the physical map. Now, We create a real-time map on our website so you possibly can see in real time which farms are open during U-picking season. We have created a way for members to (update) from their phones to point whether or not they are open or closed, what their hours are, what products they’ve, etc.

Q Have you seen a rise in U-Pick farms post-pandemic?

A We were in a position to record an unlimited growth spurt among the many participating corporations. The fantastic thing about a U-pick farm is that you just don't should be a big operation. You can own 10 acres and have a U-Pick on it. We were in a position to record a big increase in membership. We began a fall season (U-Pick) that we didn't have here before.

Harvest Time partnered with a couple of other farmers in addition to the town of Brentwood and we brought pumpkins (on the pumpkin patch) in the autumn, which was unbelievable. We now have several pumpkin patches. I feel while you see a proven business model, it gives other people permission to take the leap of hope. We've never had mulberries here before, so we added mulberries.

If you desire to have a look at the pandemic, U-Pick was type of the right pandemic activity. The spacing for an actual cherry tree (for instance) is 6 feet and it’s outdoors. I feel there's lots of talk within the food and nutrition movement about knowing where your food comes from. People are on the lookout for healthy options.

The other thing we're seeing is quite a bit more individuals are coming. We've at all times had families coming here, but we're seeing an increasing number of people of their 20s coming. They come from San Francisco for a day trip with their friends, all taking Instagram photos and picking and purchasing for their parents. This is something we now have seen during the last five years.

Q How does Harvest Time help connect local farms and the community?

A When Harvest Time originally began, one farmer didn't have the marketing budget to print a card, but ten farmers did. It's the exact same principle. Over 60 members have the chance to succeed in many more people than one agricultural member. We work as a community, which is great.

A number of our outreach comes through social media and our online presence, and we now have individuals who have been coming here for generations. Most U-Picks hire local youth, so it's something of a rite of passage. U-pick season typically begins in April and lasts through fall.

Overall, we estimate that we are going to bring around 200,000 people to the region in agritourism between April and November. Being named the U-Pick Capital in 2023 was an enormous deal. We have great parks and restaurants that you may visit afterwards. What's also special about U-Pick is that it has all types of products that won’t ship well, equivalent to rainier cherries. They are very cute and customarily bruise in a short time. So in case you buy them in the shop there, they may not look that great.

Q How does Harvest Time help educate children about agriculture?

A One reason we had a fall season was that a few of us on the board had babies and a few of us received notices (for) field trips to farms outside of Brentwood. And we thought, why outside? We are involved in agriculture and so we began the autumn program. Many of our farms host various schools for field trips where they discuss farming, farming practices and the like. All you have got to do is send them an email.

Jessica Eno's biography

Age: 44

Position: Chairman of Harvest Time in Brentwood,

Education: Studied business administration with a give attention to marketing on the University of the Pacific

Residence: Brentwood

Hometown: Brentwood

Family: husband and three children

Five things about Jessica Enos:

1. I function volunteer board chair of Harvest Time in Brentwood. I joined the board in 2018 and was elected president in 2021.

2. My skilled profession has at all times been in the development and real estate sector. I’m a broker and CEO of Enos Company, an actual estate brokerage specializing in residential and real estate transactions.

3. I also work on and market our family cherry U-pick stands – 5 Star Cherries and Enos Family Orchards.

4. Most of our family orchards were planted the identical yr one in all my children or my nephews were born. This is how I remember the age of every orchard.

5. Coral Champagne is my absolute favorite cherry variety.

Originally published: January 10, 2025 at 8:00 am PST

“It will be so easy”

Friendlier atmosphere

By Madison Muller, Bloomberg News (TNS)

For the primary time in a decade, obesity within the U.S. is falling — and a brand new study suggests it's resulting from wildly popular drugs like Ozempic.

The variety of obese Americans has been rising steadily for years, and the country's average body mass index (BMI) is rising alongside it. But in 2023, something modified: the obesity rate fell to 43.96% from 44.1% the 12 months before. It's a small but significant decline, researchers say. According to the evaluation, the largest change occurred within the south, where the very best concentration of prescriptions for the drugs was recorded.

The findings, published Friday within the JAMA Health Forum, suggest that blockbuster drugs like Novo Nordisk A/S's Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly & Co.'s Mounjaro and Zepbound may very well be helping to curb America's obesity epidemic.

“We're already seeing the impact in the data,” Benjamin Rader, the computational epidemiologist at Boston Children's Hospital who led the study, said in an interview.

Rader and his colleagues analyzed electronic health records and anonymized insurance claims from hundreds of thousands of American adults to trace the prevalence of obesity over the past decade. They used the claims data to map prescriptions for drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro, which belong to a category of medication referred to as GLP-1.

Safe and effective weight-loss drugs have the potential to vary that trajectory, experts said, but their use has been hampered by widespread supply shortages and high prices that hinder access. Despite these challenges, the drugs are beginning to have an effect, Rader said.

“While obesity remains a significant public health problem, the observed declines in obesity prevalence suggest an encouraging reversal of long-term increases in the past,” the researchers wrote.

The drug's impact was most noticeable within the South, where obesity rates fell to 45% from 46% the 12 months before. In this region, a mean of 6% of residents received a prescription for weight reduction and diabetes medications, in comparison with 5.1% within the Midwest, 4.4% within the Northeast and three.4% within the West.

In other regions, obesity rates remained unchanged – apart from the West, where they rose.

The researchers warned that the South was seeing a disproportionate variety of deaths from Covid-19 amongst individuals with obesity, which could have influenced their findings. However, the very best variety of Covid deaths occurred before 2023, so this might not explain the entire decline, they said.

Rader expects obesity-related health problems, comparable to heart problems, to say no as access to medications improves. Currently, fewer than 20 state Medicaid programs cover weight reduction costs. Medicare, the federal government medical health insurance plan for older Americans, doesn’t currently cover weight-loss medications — but a proposal from the Biden administration could soon change that. About 60% of employers have chosen to cover vaccinations for his or her employees.

Originally published: December 17, 2024 at 11:33 am PST

The rally in tech stocks has created a lot wealth in California that it has helped the state fill its coffers.

California's budget for the approaching fiscal 12 months is “roughly balanced,” the state's Legislative Analyst's Office said Wednesday, citing a surge in corporate and income tax revenue driven by the booming artificial intelligence and technology sectors in Silicon Valley in addition to changes within the economy is driven by tax codes.

“In the first half of 2024, stock payments alone at four major technology companies accounted for nearly 10% of the state’s total income tax withholdings,” an LAO report said. These firms are Nvidia Corp, Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Apple Inc.

Because of its reliance on the wealthiest people, California's economy – considered one in all the most important on this planet – is vulnerable to extreme booms and busts. The top 1% of California's workforce pays nearly half of the state's personal income tax revenue.

A measure of the so-called Magnificent Seven mega-tech firms – Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc., Apple, Meta, Microsoft Corp., Nvidia and Tesla Inc. – have risen 56% to date this 12 months, greater than twice as very similar to the S&P 500 index.

“If the sentiment around Nvidia were to change quickly, we could see a pretty significant reversal of the sales gains we've seen over the last year or so,” said Brian Uhler, a LAO lawmaker. “Even a correction in Nvidia shares could lead to billions in lost sales.”

The balanced budget forecast comes after California lawmakers in June passed a $211 billion spending plan for the fiscal 12 months that begins July 1, closing an estimated $27.6 billion shortfall should.

The report from the Legislative Analyst's Office will help Gov. Gavin Newsom and the state legislature prepare a budget for the upcoming fiscal 12 months. Newsom's first budget proposal is predicted in early January.

Expenses versus income

“Despite the slowdown in the state’s labor market and consumer spending, the incomes of high-income Californians have risen sharply in recent months,” the LAO said. “There has been a similar uptick in income tax revenue. This recovery in income tax revenues is being driven by the recent stock market rally, which calls into question its sustainability if there are no improvements to the state’s overall economy.”

The influx of corporate tax revenue was likely the results of changes to state tax rules, including a suspension of the online operating loss deduction and a $5 million cap on the quantity firms can claim for research and development.

Despite the more positive picture, increases in government spending are expected to outpace revenue growth. California spending is predicted to rise 5.8% while revenue rises 4%.

“Our assessment is that there really is no new capacity for new commitments here,” said Gabriel Petek, the legislative analyst for the state of California. The LAO assessment reflects deficit forecasts within the three budget cycles after next 12 months. “We expect there will be significant operating deficits in the order of $20 billion to $30 billion per year.”

For more stories like this, try Bloomberg.com

©2024 Bloomberg LP

Originally published: November 21, 2024 at 8:25 am PST

The In Vogue: The 90s The series takes audiences back to the glamor and grandeur of a decade wherein fashion modified. Set against the backdrop of New York, London and Paris, the series examines the rise of supermodels, designer powerhouses and the worldwide influence of fashion. But there isn’t a mention of the style scene in Australia – a rustic that was also experiencing a meteoric rise in international success on the time.

The Nineteen Nineties marked one Golden era of fashion. Supermodels like Linda Evangelista, Naomi Campbell, Cindy Crawford and Christy Turlington became style icons. Designers like Tom Ford, Jean-Paul Gaultier and John Galliano has pushed the boundaries of fashion Creating moments that defined the times and influenced every part from popular culture to politics.

While Australia may not have had the runway clout of Paris or New York, they did make significant strides in fashion in the identical period. The different varieties of Australian designers and models were impressive and rivaled the heavyweights of the style world.

So what went unsuitable?

Australian designers, international success

In the Nineteen Nineties, Australian design houses reminiscent of Alannah Hill, Collette Dinnigan, Akira Isogawa and Sass & Bide represented Australia's “grow up” in fashion, with each designer bringing a novel flair and Australian sensibility to the international market.

Alannah Hill created a whimsical aesthetic with an edgy touch. Her designs, worn by celebrities Nicole Kidman, Helena Christensen and Courtney Love, earned her one Cult following. Business skyrocketed, from her Chapel Street boutique in Melbourne to Selfridges and Browns department shops in London to Bergdorf Goodman and Henri Bendel on Fifth Avenue in New York City.

In 1996 Collette Dinnigan achieved global recognition as the primary Australian designer to present her collection at Paris Fashion Week. Dinnigan's delicate lace dresses and couture craftsmanship found a highlight at London's Victoria & Albert Museum Fashion on the move Exhibition. While the iron was still hot, Dinnigan secured a lingerie collaboration with Marks & Spencer.

Akira Isogawa, known for his Mixture of Japanese and Western aesthetics released his first collection in 1994. He presented subsequent collections every two years in Parisa legacy that has endured since 1998. He was revolutionary from the beginning, turning early constraints into strengths. When the budget for his first big show wasn't enough for shoes, he sent models down the catwalk little red socks. The fashion statement ultimately helped him secure greater than just himself 50 trading partners.

Founded in 1999 by friends Sarah-Jane Clarke and Heidi Middleton, Sass & Bide brought a youthful, urban energy from London's Portobello Road Markets back to the shores of Australia. Their signature brand quickly gained popularity and was acquired by Myer A$42.3 million two part deal. Australia was not an isolated island, but a wild card in the worldwide fashion ecosystem.

Australian faces and Elaine George's Vogue cover

Australian designers weren't the one superstars to attain fashion fame.

As the supermodel phenomenon burned into the style zeitgeist, Australian model and businesswoman Elle Macpherson (then often known as The body) was already well-known. Australian models Sarah Murdoch, Kristy Hinze, Kate Fisher and Alyssa Sutherland would follow.

magazine 90s cover models gave the impression to be sun-drenched”Girl round the corner“Charm. The exception was Emma Balfouroften touted as Australia's androgynous counterpart to Kate Moss' grunge bohemian look.

But 1993 brought a turning point within the Australian beauty paradigm. It was the yr that Elaine George, Australia's first Aboriginal model, arrived on the duvet of Vogue Australia magazine and made fashion history. Elaine's presence underlined the priority of the Australian fashion industry Eurocentric beauty ideals.

First Nations beauty and fashion talent desperately needed to be celebrated. But Australian Vogue readers had to attend until October 2000 for the Torres Strait Islander singer-songwriter and actress to seem Christine Anu was featured on the duvet. The divide showed that the stain of underrepresentation and inequality remained inside Australian fashion's status.

The 2000s, when fashion became much faster

While the Nineteen Nineties were a time of optimism and growth for Australian fashion, this momentum didn’t proceed into the 2000s. Several aspects contributed to this decline.

One of probably the most significant changes was the rise of fast fashion within the early 2000s. Brands like Zara, H&M and Forever 21 began to dominate the worldwide market with reasonably priced, quickly produced clothing.

This shift meant that many independent designers, including those from Australia, were struggling to compete. The slow, meticulous craftsmanship that characterised Australian designers within the '90s couldn't sustain with the fast fashion cycle.

Another challenge was the dearth of sustained support for the Australian fashion industry. Unlike New York, London or Paris, which had well-established fashion infrastructures, Australia's fashion scene was still relatively young. There was no long-term strategy to support emerging talent or promote Australian fashion on a world scale. Many designers either moved abroad or struggled to keep up the identical level of success as within the 90s.

A brand new renaissance?

The story of Australian fashion within the Nineteen Nineties is a promising but ultimately missed opportunity. Today, Australia has the chance to experience a brand new renaissance driven by digital innovation its unique cultures.

The rise of digital fashion enables Australian designers to interrupt free from the constraints of traditional fashion markets. With virtual clothing (simulated for real clothing or digital domains), AI-powered design tools and Metaverse runwaysAustralian creatives can use the technology to showcase their work globally.

The Advocating for Indigenous models and designers and multicultural identity is crucial. This inclusivity could position Australia as a sustainable and ethical fashion innovator and supply a compelling alternative to the fast fashion giants.

Apple's impending release of the iPhone has boosted the corporate's stock price on the promise of artificial intelligence. If history is any guide, those gains look like in danger, at the very least within the short term.

After an iPhone launches, the corporate's stock typically underperforms. This sets a cautious precedent when expectations are sky-high and Apple's stock price is kind of high relative to earnings, leaving little room for error.

Apple shares fell on 12 of the 17 iPhone launch days, in keeping with data compiled by Bloomberg. Additionally, September was the worst month for Apple shares up to now decade, falling a median of three.2%. This follows a broader trend, as each the SP 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted their biggest percentage losses this month, in keeping with Stock Trader's Almanac.

Apple closed at $220.85 on Wednesday, down $1.92, or 0.86%.

If the newest iPhone fails to satisfy expectations when it comes to product features or sales, Apple could see a repeat of this valuation slump.

“It's easy to imagine a scenario where the market has built up all this excitement, but then you have to wait until we get concrete evidence that Apple's AI strategy is working,” said Denny Fish, who manages the $7 billion Janus Henderson Global Technology and Innovation Fund. “While there is a desire for AI capabilities, there is also room for skepticism and the price-to-earnings ratio is at the high end,” he added. “This is generally not a good time to buy.”

The company will hold a product announcement event on September 9. Bloomberg News recently reported that the newest phones will go on sale on September 20, however the AI ​​features won't roll out until October via software updates.

Apple shares have risen 39 percent since their April low, adding greater than $900 billion to the corporate's market capitalization and contributing 22.6 percent to the Nasdaq 100 Index's total gains through the period — greater than another component, in keeping with Bloomberg data.

Apple's shares are valued at 31 times expected earnings, greater than 50 percent higher than the common price-earnings ratio over the past decade. Last month, the sales multiple reached 8.8, its highest since at the very least 2000.

Optimism concerning the company's AI strategy has been a key driver of the rally. Citi named Apple its top AI pick for 2025, and Daniel Loeb's Third Point LLC recently weighed in, writing in an investor letter that “AI-related demand could drive significant improvement in Apple's revenue and profit over the next few years.”

Growth has been in brief supply at Apple for a while. Revenue has fallen in five of the last seven quarters, and analysts forecast it should rise just 1.8% in fiscal 2024 before accelerating to 7.9% growth the next 12 months. In contrast, the general SP 500 technology sector is anticipated to see revenue growth of 10.9% in 2024 and 12.7% in 2025, in keeping with Bloomberg Intelligence.

Ironically, growth has been muted due to improvements to the iPhone. Customers are keeping their phones longer because cameras and batteries have gotten higher and costlier, so there's little reason to spend money on a brand new model.

Given the importance of the iPhone to Apple's product lineup – it accounted for nearly half of revenue last quarter – Wall Street expects its sophisticated AI features to encourage more customers to upgrade, accelerating growth.

The pool of users thinking about a brand new iPhone is potentially huge. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, over 40% of Apple's 800 million-plus smartphones are iPhone 12 or older, and one other 27% of users have an iPhone 13. Less than 10% of current users have phones that may be upgraded to the AI ​​software.

However, a BI survey of U.S. smartphone users conducted in July found that artificial intelligence might not be enough to drive upgrades, which might jeopardize Apple's resurgence.

MoffettNathanson recently initiated coverage on the stock with a neutral rating, writing that the valuation “implies an iPhone upgrade cycle that is significantly larger than the 5G upgrade cycle of 2021/22.” The firm is skeptical that Apple can achieve this, especially given the rate of interest environment.

Despite these risks, there stays great optimism concerning the importance of AI to Apple's long-term growth, and the upgrade cycle is more likely to span several years.

Even if there’s a sell-off around the discharge of the brand new iPhone, the brand new iPhone will generate sales and profits over time, which could boost the stock price, says Eric Johnston, chief equity and macro strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.

“The multiple is clearly high right now, but expensive names can stay expensive if the momentum is there,” he said. “I think that will be the case with Apple.”