The volunteers who participate in search and rescue operations after which assist disaster survivors belong to organizations which have change into more formal and established over the past decade. We found this out after greater than 4 years Volunteering alongside eight of those groups to higher understand their role and the motivations of the people participating in these efforts.

We did this research as part of a bigger one Team of sociologists, an urban planning scientist and emergency management specialists. We all worked with civilian volunteer search and rescue groups from Louisiana and Texas during and after many hurricanes between 2017 and 2022. including Harvey And Laura, the winter storm Uri and other major disasters.

While volunteering with these organizations, we observed them in motion and interviewed their leaders and volunteers to search out out why they take the time and private risks to avoid wasting others. Many cited their personal values, expressed their have to belong to a bunch, and said this helped them find meaning. Others shared that they were motivated by their personal circumstances and experiences, feelings of guilt, or that one of these volunteer work gave them a deep sense of satisfaction.

“I lost everything I owned in Katrina. They considered my family’s property uninhabitable,” said a boater we’ll call Dylan to guard his anonymity. “I can’t sit here after knowing what it means to lose everything.”

Some volunteers said one reason they’ve done this work repeatedly is to counteract stereotypes about individuals who take part in these efforts. When he heard people say, “Oh, you're just out there doing this just to get the spotlight,” Roger said and told us he desired to respond by saying, “Yeah, dude. If you’re flooded, call me and I’ll pick you up.”

While the organizations we studied were based in Louisiana and Texas, the volunteers participating in these efforts come from across the United States and, in some cases, from other countries. One volunteer we met was from the UK.

Why it matters

Since Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in 2005, volunteers have been involved in search and rescue operations following major disasters, particularly on this region. But these volunteers come from in every single place.

Many of those groups are often known as “Cajun Navy” organizations. Whether or not these organizations use the Cajun Navy trademark of their names, they share the common mission of helping others in times of need.

These volunteers aren’t fair Operating boats and helicopters. Others act as dispatchers, handle logistics and run social media activities.

Over time, a number of the organizations have begun working with local emergency responders. Signing of letters of intent with you. They work with government agencies and assist in disaster relief and relief efforts, but operate primarily autonomously and might travel to where they imagine the necessity is biggest.

This kind of group tends to dissipate after a disaster passesmoderately than becoming a longtime nonprofit organization.

But most of the eight groups we studied have change into nonprofits or are within the strategy of doing so.

How we do our work

We were capable of conduct this research by becoming volunteers ourselves. We participated in local and distant shipping operations and supported logistics planning. In addition, we observed and in some cases participated in search and rescue training and operations in water and on land.

The Research Brief is a brief version of interesting scientific work.

Freshman enrollment at California State University reached an all-time high this fall despite the statewide financial aid application blunders.

The university system said that while enrollment data won’t be finalized until November, preliminary data for 2024 showed a 2% increase in overall enrollment over 2023 and showed greater than 68,500 freshmen enrolled on the university's 23 campus locations.

“This promising upward momentum demonstrates Californians' confidence within the extraordinary power of a CSU degree to rework lives, particularly for America's recent majority of first-generation students, students of color, low-income students and adults who look for brand spanking new opportunities. “, said CSU Chancellor Mildred García.

The university called the increased enrollment numbers a “testament to the tremendous efforts” made by staff across schools to make sure students and families had more time to receive and consider financial aid packages after aid offers declined attributable to challenges in rolling out the brand new ones Aid packages had delayed federal financial aid forms last 12 months.

It was the primary time in 40 years that the Education Department released a revision to the federal aid application. The goal was to make it easier for college kids to use for and qualify for financial aid. However, the rollout quickly became a nightmare for 1000’s of scholars as problems and glitches with the forms left students unable to submit their applications and compelled colleges to delay issuing offers.

Cal State University, the University of California and several other other schools prolonged the choice deadline for college kids to point which school they need to attend.

In a standard 12 months, colleges would typically settle on aid offers by March and students would settle on a college by May. However, the Ministry of Education only began sending student applications to universities in mid-March, leaving many students waiting for his or her offers of aid just weeks before the May deadline.

Preliminary data also showed that greater than half of Cal State University's freshmen and undergraduate students come from low-income families and historically underserved groups. And just about all (96%) of California's freshmen were admitted.

Cal State University said that while total systemwide enrollment in fall 2024 just isn’t expected to exceed pre-pandemic numbers, the brand new data suggests continued growth in the approaching years.

This is the time of patriotism in Latin America, as in lots of other countries commemorate their independence from colonial powers. From July to September, public squares in countries from Mexico to Honduras and Chile fill with crowds dressed and painted in national colours, in parades participants are dressed as independence heroes, fireworks fill the sky and schoolchildren reenact historic battles.

Beneath these nationalist representations ripples an uneasy tide: the colonial legacies that also link America to its Iberian conquerors. And because the calendar turns to October, one other holiday highlights similar tensions – Columbus Day.

Since 1937, the USA has… celebrated the vacation on the second Monday of the month to commemorate the explorer's arrival within the New World in 1492. It stays a federal holiday, although many states and cities rename it.Indigenous Peoples Day“and rejected Christopher Columbus as a logo of imperialism.

Most Latin Americans now know October twelfth as “Día de la Raza,” or race day, which also celebrates the arrival of Columbus within the New World and the following flood of Iberian conquerors. But the commemoration of this event is much more vital in these lands, where the Spanish Empire is home to essentially the most lucrative territorial assets and far-reaching spiritual conquests. A number of days before she takes office in September 2024: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum reiterated the demands of her predecessor that the King of Spain apologizes for the genocide and exploitation of the conquest 500 years ago.

As a historian of Latin AmericaI paid attention to how calendars signal a nation's “official” values ​​and the way countries wrestle with the meaning of those holidays.

Columbus Day

The first encounter between the Aztec emperor Montezuma and the conqueror Hernando Cortés took place on November 8, 1519 – the latter supported by an entourage of 300 Spaniards, hundreds of indigenous allies and slaves, and a whole bunch of Africans, free or not.

This moment of contact initiated Mexico's 500-year transformation right into a “mestizo” nation: a hybrid identity with largely European and indigenous roots. During the colonial era, racial differences were codified in law those with “pure” Spanish bloodlines enjoyed legal privileges over the racially mixed categories subordinate to them. The nineteenth century brought independence from Spain and liberal ideas that in principle promoted racial equality, but in point of fact European influence prevailed.

That was Spain first suggested the Día de la Raza, held on October 12, 1892 to commemorate the four-hundredth anniversary of Columbus' arrival within the Americas – a celebration of Spain's contribution to mestizo racial mixing.

The celebration was a part of an try and boost nationalism in Spain because the fading colonial power continued its retreat from the hemisphere it had controlled for nearly 4 centuries. Spain also hoped to export the invented holiday to America, strengthening transatlantic cultural affinities that were being tested by the growing influence of the United States. Across America, Día de la Raza became synonymous We have a good time European influence.

In Mexico, the commemoration of 1892 empowered members of the political elite, who promoted European investment and culture as a model for the country's modernization. They took the chance to praise the civilizing influence of the “madre patria”.“or motherland” and justified conquest and colonialism as a time of benevolent rule.

Mestizo nationalism

Just just a few years later, nevertheless, the U.S. victory within the Spanish-American War swept the last remnants of the Spanish empire from the hemisphere. Spain's exit paved the best way for doubles and duel phenomena: rising patriotic spirit in Latin American countries, even within the face of accelerating economic pressure and cultural influence from the United States

The Mexican Revolution of 1910 ignited Mestizo nationalismwhich soon spread to other countries. In Nicaragua within the Nineteen Thirties Augusto Sandino launched a revolution to expel the occupying U.S. Marines while calling for the unification of the “Indo-Hispanic race.” Now a Peruvian mental Jose Mariategui envisioned a contemporary nation built on the ideals of a collective, reciprocal society, modeled on the Inca ayllu system. And in Mexico, beauty pageants The appreciation of local peculiarities was very talked-about amongst social classes who were used to browsing for Parisian imports in department shops.

However, there was still a bent to emphasise Spanish cultural ancestry reasonably than indigenous ones. In the late Nineteen Thirties, for instance, the October issue of the Mexican children's magazine Palomilla celebrated the arrival of Columbus a heroic appearance This gave the region a typical language and religion.

Pan American Day

Meanwhile, the US viewed pan-Hispanic sentiments as a threat: Spanish economic goals were obscured Racial and cultural solidarity.

To strengthen loyalties within the hemisphere, Franklin D. Roosevelt proclaimed a brand new holiday on April 14, 1930: Pan-American Day, or Día de las Américas. The vacation wanted compensated for the stories of each Columbus Day and Día de la Raza and marked that of the US government The focus of the Good Neighborhood Policy is on Latin America – a gentler type of imperialism that, a minimum of on the surface, promoted solidarity and brotherhood.

The Pan-American Union, an inter-American organization based in Washington, saw the brand new date as a chance to forge shared traditions across the hemisphere. It vigorously promoted Pan American Day celebrations, especially amongst school childrenby which teachers are asked to implement games, puzzles, pageants and songs created within the offices of the Pan American Union.

The holiday received an enthusiastic response within the United States. People from the Midwest Hats on for parades, and Spanish-speaking clubs in California held pageants celebrating the flags of American nations.

But Latin American commemoration has been lukewarm at best. The Organization of American States, the successor to the Pan American Union, still recognizes it Pan American Day. However, it never gained traction in Latin America and faded away within the United States during World War II.

Last layer

Latin America's ambivalence toward holidays commemorating colonizers has taken a turn since 1992. The five hundredth anniversary of Columbus' arrival corresponded with this yet one more type of colonialismwithin the eyes of many Latin Americans, as a brand new wave of multinational corporations worked with heads of state to tap the continent's oil, lithium, water and avocados.

Activists used the commemoration to spotlight the continued economic, social, racial and cultural inequalities. The anniversary was particularly inspiring Indigenous rights movements – a few of them commemorated an “anti-quincentenary celebration” to have a good time “500 years of resistance”.

Día de la Raza has since been renamed to reflect anti-colonial sentiments, just like Columbus Day within the United States. Ecuador calls October twelfth Day of Interculturality and Ethnic Identity; Argentina celebrates it as Day of Respect for Cultural Diversity; Nicaragua now refers to it as Day of Indigenous, Black and Popular Resistance; in Colombia it’s Ethnic and Cultural Diversity Day; and the Dominican Republic celebrates it as Intercultural day.

In some places, the renaming of the vacation has drawn attention to indigenous rights and culture. Bolivians, for instance, draped a statue of a European monarch in a standard “Aguayo” robe that transforms her into an indigenous woman. But critics say removing the vacation's reference to the colonizers would erase a vital reminder of the conquest and its painful legacy.

Like within the USA, Monuments to colonizers fall – including the Columbus monument, which stood in a conspicuous place on La Reforma, certainly one of Mexico City's busiest foremost thoroughfares.

In its place is a brand new installation: a purple silhouette of a Girl with raised fistin honor of Latin American women activists. She declares one New era of statues that line La Reforma, and heroes for the long run – not mired within the colonial legacies of the past.

A brand new survey shows that California renters are twice as unhappy about their financial situation as Golden State homeowners.

The Public Policy Institute of California statewide survey for September reinforces a very important economic divide – renters vs. homeowners. Consider that 44% of renters told pollsters they were “dissatisfied” with their financial situation, in comparison with just 22% of dissatisfied homeowners.

Or consider the flip side of the query: Only 8% of California renters say they’re “very satisfied” with their funds, in comparison with 26% of house owners, based on surveys.

Looking ahead to the following six months, 26% of California renters expected a stronger financial situation in comparison with 20% of house owners. But 24% of renters expect their financial situation to be weaker, in comparison with 22% of householders.

If asked for a bigger image view, California renters were more optimistic in regards to the statewide economy over the following 12 months.

The survey found that 63% of renters expected “bad times,” versus 60% of householders, in comparison with 36% of renters who expected “good times,” versus 38% of householders.

The national outlook was equally bleak: 63% of California renters expected “bad times” for the U.S. economy, in comparison with 59% of house owners. Compare that to the 35% of renters who’ve “good times” in mind in comparison with 37% of householders.

Blue hue

Note that California renters are likely to get bluer on this blue state.

When asked about their views on political parties, 51% of California renters said “positive” toward Democrats, in comparison with 48% of house owners. Republicans got 22% “approval” from renters, in comparison with 30% from owners.

Interestingly, when asked about satisfaction with political parties overall, the necessity for a 3rd party was probably the most common answer, given by 66% of California renters and 69% of house owners.

Conclusion

High-cost California makes for a poor outlook whatever the economic or political cycle.

This survey found that there are only a few comfortable people, no matter their housing status. Think in regards to the common “right direction or wrong direction” query that pollsters prefer to ask.

When it involves the state's atmosphere, renters in California had barely less negative feelings – 53% said they were going the unsuitable way, versus 45% saying they were going the fitting way. That's just a little more optimistic than the owners: 56% say unsuitable, 42% say right.

There is an excellent more unified sentiment towards the country: 71% of each California renters and homeowners oppose development within the US. (FYI: 28% of renters said the fitting direction, versus 26% of householders.)

Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He will be reached at jlansner@scng.com

Originally published: October 9, 2024 at 8:41 am

In just a couple of years, brand-name injectable medications comparable to Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound have skyrocketed to fame Billion dollar annual sales for weight reduction in addition to controlling blood sugar levels and reducing the danger of heart disease.

But the worth of those injections is high: they cost about $800-$1,000 per 30 daysand when used alone for weight reduction, they are usually not covered by most insurance firms. Both medications mimic the naturally occurring hormone GLP-1 to control blood sugar and reduce food cravings. They can only be taken with a health care provider's prescription.

The Food and Drug Administration announced an official shortage of energetic ingredients in these drugs in 2022, but on October 2, 2024, the agency announced that this is able to be the case The shortage of the drug tirzepatide has been resolvedthe energetic ingredient in Mounjaro and Zepbound.

Despite the increasing demand and limited supply of those medications, no generic versions can be found. This is because of the patents for semaglutide – the energetic ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, which remains to be briefly supply – and tirzepatide won’t expire until 2033 and 2036respectively.

As a result, Non-branded alternatives Medicines, available with or with no prescription, flood the market. Still, these products pose real risks for consumers.

I’m a pharmacist Who is investigating weaknesses in federal supervision? recipe and over-the-counter medications And Dietary supplements within the USA My research group recently investigated loopholes which enable alternative products for weight reduction to enter the market.

High demand is driving GLP-1 wannabes newbies

The complement market is attempting to capitalize on GLP-1 demand with pills, teas, extracts and all types of other products claim to provide similar effects just like the brand names at a less expensive price.

Products containing the herb berberine only provide a a couple of kilos of weight reductionwhile many contain weight reduction supplements Stimulants comparable to sibutramine and laxatives comparable to phenolphthaleinthat increase the danger Heart attacks, strokes And Cancer.

The role of compounding pharmacies

Unlike the dietary supplements disguised as GLP-1 weight reduction products, pharmacies that manufacture supplements can produce customized versions of products that contain the identical energetic ingredients as the unique for patients who for some reason are neither branded nor Can use generic products.

These pharmacies may produce alternative versions of brand-name medications when official drug shortages exist.

Because demand for GLP-1 drugs far exceeds supply, compounding pharmacies legally produce a drug Variety of various semaglutide and tirzepatide products.

These products may are available different versions than those offered by brand manufacturers, comparable to vials containing powder that have to be dissolved in liquid, or as tablets or nasal spray.

Just like with brand name medications, you will have a legitimate prescription to acquire one. The prices range from $250 to $400 per 30 days – still a high price for a lot of consumers.

Compounding pharmacies must comply FDA sterility and quality production methodsbut these rules are usually not as strict for compounding pharmacies as they’re for business manufacturers of generic drugs.

In addition, the products that pharmacies produce are manufactured don’t must be tested on humans on safety or effectiveness, as is the case with branded products.

Even with compounded drug forms, getting the proper dosage is usually a challenge.

Companies using the system

For individuals who can't afford a compounded pharmacy product or can't get a legitimate prescription for semaglutide or tirzepatide, opportunistic corporations are stepping in to fill the gap. These include “peptide companies,” manufacturers that produce non-FDA-approved copycat versions of the drugs.

From November 2023 to March 2024, my team conducted a study to evaluate which of those peptide corporations were selling semaglutide or tirzepatide products. We searched the web for these peptide corporations and gathered details about what they sell and what their sales practices are.

We found that peptide sellers a Loophole for the sale of those drugs. On their web sites, the businesses state that their drugs are “for research use only” or “not for human consumption,” but they do nothing to confirm that the buyers are researchers or that the product is meant a research institution goes.

Reading the comment sections on company web sites and targeted ads on social media, it's clear that each buyers and sellers understand the farce. Unlike drug pharmacies, these peptide sellers don’t provide the materials you want to dissolve and inject the drug, don’t provide instructions, and typically don’t answer questions.

Because peptide sellers supposedly don’t sell to consumers, they don’t require a legitimate prescription and sell consumers the quantity of medication they want to buy. Even if an individual has an eating disorder, comparable to: Anorexia nervosaThe corporations are completely satisfied to sell you a semaglutide or tirzepatide product with no prescription. The average prices of those peptide products range from $181 to $203 per 30 days.

Base regulations

Peptide sellers would not have to stick to the principles or regulations that drug manufacturers or compounding pharmacies follow. Many corporations claim that their products are 99% pure, but a independent investigation of three corporations Products from August 2023 to March 2024 revealed that the purity of the products was far lower than promised.

A product contained endotoxin – a toxic substance produced by bacteria – suggesting it was contaminated with microbes. Additionally, the products' promised dosages were reduced by 29 to 39%. Poor purity may cause discomfort to patients Fever, chills, nauseaSkin irritation, infections and low blood pressure.

In this study, some corporations didn't ship the drug in any respect and told buyers they might must pay an extra fee to get the product through customs.

If a consumer is is broken by an inferior productit could be difficult to sue the vendor because the products specifically state that they’re “not intended for human consumption.” Ultimately, consumers are tricked into spending money on products which will never arrive, could cause an infection, may not have the proper dosage, and will not contain instructions on safely use or store the product.

Will prices for branded products fall?

To combat these alternative sellers, pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly began offering an alternate version of his brand name Zepbound Weight loss product in September 2024.

Instead of traditional injection pens, which cost greater than $1,000 a month to provide, this product is available in vials that the patient picks up and injects themselves. For patients taking 5 milligrams of Zepbound each week, the vial products would cost $549 per 30 days if patients purchase it through the corporate's online pharmacy and might prove they would not have insurance coverage for the drug.

After one Grilling on Capitol Hill In September 2024, the pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk got here under intense pressure to supply patients without prescription insurance a less expensive product for its brand name Wegovy.

Additional brand-name drugs containing GLP-1 agonists are expected to come back onto the market in the following few years. As of October 2024, a A handful of those products are in late-stage clinical trialswith energetic ingredients comparable to Retatrutid, Survive And Ecnoglutideand greater than 18 other drug candidates are in earlier stages of development.

As latest pharmaceutical corporations enter this market, they have to offer patients lower prices than Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to be able to gain market share. This is the most definitely medium-term solution to scale back the fee of GLP-1 drugs and eliminate drug shortages in the marketplace.

The centerpiece of Donald Trump's second-term domestic agenda is the mass deportation of 20 million and even 25 million immigrants who he and his campaign say are within the country illegally.

“The Republican platform,” Trump said during his speech in July accepting his party’s nomination for president, “promises to launch the largest deportation effort in the history of our country.” And while the variety of those living within the country illegally Immigrants are about 11 million people in response to the very best estimates, plus the about 2.3 million migrants who’ve been released into the country on bail, parole, a supervision order or conditional release, this doesn’t appear to be of importance to the previous president to be the one who has targeted anyone he considers to be “illegal.”

For Trump, mass deportation is the answer to many of the country's most pressing challenges. A mass deportation, he says, would end a perceived epidemic of crime and unrest. It would save the culture and secure the nation. And his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, says mass deportation would someway lower prices and ease the housing crisis. “We have a lot of Americans who need a home,” Vance said last week during his debate with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. “We should kick out illegal immigrants who are competing for these homes, and we should build more homes for the American citizens who deserve to be here.”

If Trump is a classic American confidence man, then mass deportation is his panacea – a magical tincture that treats all ailments and cures all illnesses. And like several traveling salesman, Trump is careful not to say the unintended effects of this powerful treatment. But not only are there unintended effects, the potion also doesn’t treat the disease and may kill the patient.

The taxpayer costs

It is obvious that mass deportation could be a humanitarian catastrophe. If past precedent is any indication of future outcomes, it is vitally likely that the forced migration and detention of tens of millions of individuals will kill hundreds, perhaps tens of hundreds, of those caught within the dragnet of involuntary deportation. If implemented, the plan would destroy communities and tear families apart. And given Trump's hostility to birthright citizenship, there may be every reason to consider that his deportation regime would also affect American residents, particularly those with ties to immigrants.

What is somewhat less obvious is the extent to which mass deportation would plunge the United States into economic darkness. A mass deportation plan aimed toward deporting 13.3 million immigrants over a few decade would crash the economy, impoverish tens of millions of Americans and deprive the federal government of nearly $1 trillion, in response to a brand new report from the nonpartisan American Immigration Council .

During last week's debate, Vance said Trump's deportation plan would start with about 1,000,000 suspected felons. Deporting 1,000,000 immigrants a 12 months, the report says, “would incur an annual cost of $88 billion, with the majority of those costs going to building detention camps.” Assuming “self-deportation,” the federal government would need to construct “hundreds to thousands of new detention centers to arrest, detain, process, and deport all targeted immigrants,” at an estimated cost of $66 billion per 12 months.

In addition, the federal government would need to spend $7 billion per 12 months to perform the arrests, $12.6 billion per 12 months to process those arrested, and a median of $2.1 billion to deport these immigrants from the country spend. This doesn’t include personnel costs, which could significantly increase the general price. “Even making 1 million at-large arrests per year,” the report says, “would require ICE to hire over 30,000 new law enforcement officers and staff, which would immediately make it the largest law enforcement agency in the federal government,” assuming one With average annual inflation of two.5%, this deportation program would cost no less than $967.9 billion over 10 years.

For the price of this program, the report says, the United States could construct greater than 40,000 recent elementary schools, construct greater than 2.9 million recent homes and pay full tuition and costs for greater than 8.9 million Americans who’re a would pay for 4 years of public college within the state, fund the Head Start program for many of the subsequent century, and buy a brand recent automobile for about 20.4 million people.

The economic costs

But the prices of mass deportation almost pale as compared to the direct economic costs of removing tens of millions of individuals from the economy. A mass deportation, the report says, would harm key industries that depend on their employees: “The construction and agriculture industries would lose at least one in eight workers, while in the hospitality sector, about one in 14 workers would be deported because of their undocumented status. “”

The country would lose about 1,000,000 immigrant entrepreneurs, together with the revenue they generate and the roles they create. The federal government would lose tens of billions of dollars in federal taxes, including Social Security and Medicare contributions. States and localities would lose greater than $29 billion in tax revenue. Overall, the American Immigration Council concludes that “mass deportations would result in a loss of 4.2% to 6.8% of annual U.S. GDP, or $1.1 to $1.7 trillion in 2022.” By comparison, the country's gross domestic product shrank 4.3% in the course of the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009. During this time, unemployment peaked at 10%. And high unemployment is linked to a big selection of social ills, including higher rates of poverty, food insecurity, addiction and premature death.

So, on the low estimate, a mass deportation program would create – for all Americans – a social and economic crisis comparable to the Great Recession. At high estimates, this is able to lead to an economic and social crisis dwarfing anything Americans have experienced for the reason that Great Depression.

Jamelle Bouie is a columnist for The New York Times.

In response to The failure of national pollsters In predicting election ends in 1948 and 1952, the New York Times conducted a week-long, multistate field reporting exercise in 1956 to gauge public opinion concerning the presidential election.

The Times' experiment, now often called “Shoe Leather CoverageThis included two dozen journalists assigned to four teams that traveled to a total of 27 battleground states several weeks before the election – a rematch between President Dwight D. Eisenhower, a Republican, and his Democratic rival Adlai E. Stevenson.

The reporting teams surveyed scores of Americans from all walks of life to qualitatively gauge voter preferences—without counting on pre-election poll data. One of the participating Times reporters said afterwards that team-based campaign reporting represented “a new departure in journalism.”

In unintended evidence of the challenges of measuring public opinion across a sprawling country, the Times' reporting was not a big improvement over the polls. The Times' reporting notably didn’t foresee the extent of Eisenhower's re-election – a one-sided victory during which he carried 41 states.

In his Final report Before the election, the Times concluded that Eisenhower would win re-election but wouldn’t repeat the successes he had achieved 4 years earlier. As it turned out, Eisenhower exceeded them Dimensions of his victory in 1952when his winning margin was 10.5 percentage points.

The Times' reporting was also unpredictable Eisenhower's state victories in 1956 VirginiaOklahoma and West Virginia, and significantly underestimated the president's support in Connecticut, Illinois, MichiganMinnesota, Pennsylvania and Texas, amongst other states.

The Times' reporting experiment proved to be an imperfect substitute for election polls, as I argued in a recent research paper for The Times American Journalism Historians Association. In the work I defined “Shoe Leather Coverage” as a group of current content through personal interviews, document searches and on-site observations. The idiom assumes that journalists do their fieldwork so vigorously that they wear out their shoes.

“Shoe leather reporting” has been around for a very long time celebrated in American media; a widely published journalism educator described the practice as “mythical” and “one of the few gods to whom an American journalist can officially pray.”

Crises distort forecasts

The Times' 1956 experiment represents a rare case study within the appeal and limitations of in-depth, interview-based reporting as a way for measuring public opinion in presidential campaigns, particularly when dramatic international events occur shortly before the election.

This was the case in 1956 when the Egyptian government seized the Suez Canal and caused this to occur military intervention by Israeli, British and French forces – a response that Eisenhower regretted. At concerning the same time, Soviet tanks were ordered to Hungary Crush an rebellion against communist rule and install a Moscow-compliant regime.

The international crises could have increased the margin of victory for Eisenhower, an Army general in World War II, in a “rally for the president” effect.

In any case, it was an election failure that inspired the Times' campaign reporting experiment.

Eight years ago, in 1948The polls, the press, and pundits predicted that Republican Thomas E. Dewey would oust Democrat Harry S. Truman, who had grow to be president after the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945.

But because of a vigorous, cross-country campaign Truman defeated Dewey and two minor party candidates win.

The leading national pollsters of the time—George Gallup, Archibald Crossley, and Elmo Roper— Everyone predicted Dewey's easy victory. Roper announced in early September 1948 that Dewey was to this point ahead that he would stop publishing survey results. Dewey, Roper said, would win.with a giant lead.”

Truman, who predicted that pollsters “red-facedThe day after the election, there have been 28 states and 303 electoral votes. Be Leading strategy to defeating Deweywho won 16 states and 189 electoral votes was 4.5 percentage points. J. Strom Thurmond of the segregationist Dixiecrat Party carried 4 Deep South states and 39 electoral votes.

Not tied to the “arithmetic of polls”.

Not surprisingly, Gallup, Crossley, and Roper were extremely cautious in assessing the 1952 presidential campaign, claiming at the tip of the campaign that any candidate could win.

They said Eisenhower looked as if it would have a narrow lead, but Stevenson was closing in quickly. Or just like the Times said in reporting a few public meeting of pollsters shortly before the election: “The pollsters gave…Eisenhower, the Republican nominee, a slight lead in the popular vote, but this was their dilemma: How quickly will…Stevenson, the Democratic nominee, catch up?” “

The equivocation didn’t profit the pollsters. None of them expected Eisenhower's overwhelming victory – a landslide victory in 39 states.

The Times didn’t editorially reprimand the pollsters for his or her failure in 1952, however the paper's editors did, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Max Frankel wrote in his memoirsHe has “lost confidence in the polls”.

To cover the 1956 presidential election, the Times emphasized public opinion polls and as an alternative focused by itself intensive on-the-ground coverage, specializing in states where the presidential race was prone to be closely contested.

Frankelwho rose to grow to be executive editor of the Times, recalled being pulled away from the newsroom in 1956 and knocking on doors “to gather voter sentiment.” I drove through strange counties in Milwaukee and Austin, Texas, Arlington, Virginia, and St. Joseph, Missouri, passing notes to a colleague on one among the reporting teams.

The teams typically spent three days in a state, conducting interviews “with political scientists and police officers, political leaders and bartenders, workers, housewives and farmers,” the paper said.

The Times described its grassroots reporting as “Surveys“, although they weren’t quantitative samples.

“Team members found value in not being bound by the arithmetic of polls,” wrote one among the participants, Donald D. Janson, in a post-election review for the Nieman Reports, a journalism industry publication.

“The scope and depth of the effort represented a new path in journalism,” Janson said.

The process was impressionistic, even idiosyncratic. “Every reporter,” Janson wrote, “had the freedom to assess the reliability of every response, from both politicians and voters.”

The Times published 36 state-specific area code reportsincluding nine based on follow-up visits by reporters to states where a very close result was expected.

In his Final report Two days before the election, the Times said it “seemed doubtful” whether Eisenhower's lead could be “as large as it was in 1952.” Actually, Eisenhower's victory in 1956 far exceeded that of 1952; In the rematch, he beat Stevenson by greater than 9.5 million votes.

The times admitted in an article after the election that the team-based reporting “failed to anticipate the magnitude of the president’s victory,” which she attributed to the Suez crisis and unrest in Hungary. The crises, the Times said, “apparently provided the final impetus for the Eisenhower landslide.”

No antidote to bad polls

The shoe leather reporting experiment of 1956 was not a powerful success. “It was felt,” Janson later wrote, “that the Times should stick to reporting trends and leave the forecasts to the pollsters.”

Pre-election polls from Gallup and Roper in 1956 accurately predicted Eisenhower's victory but exaggerated the president's majority vote. Eisenhower won by 15 points; Gallup and Roper estimated his margin of victory at 19 points. By 1956, Crossley had sold his company and retired from campaigning.

Roper said he was “personally pleased” with the result but was hesitant to make “any bows about perfect accuracy.”

Given the unreliability of pre-election polls within the late Forties and early Fifties, the Times had every reason to experiment with the seek for a more accurate understanding of public opinion. But as the outcomes of the 1956 election showed, shoe coverage was no antidote to erratic polls.

A number of minutes into their only one-on-one debate, sparks began to fly between U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff and former LA Dodgers star Steve Garvey as each accused the opposite of failing the Californians.

In an hour-long televised forum tonight for the U.S. Senate seat that Dianne Feinstein held until her death last 12 months, the 2 engaged in verbal altercations and argued over a variety of issues, including reproductive rights and gun control and immigration.

Garvey, a Republican from Palm Desert, portrayed Schiff as a “career politician” who did little for the people of California during his time in office. “This man has done nothing for the last 24 years of all of these things that have given us stability in life,” Garvey said.

Schiff, a Democrat from Burbank who has served in Congress since 2001, portrayed Garvey as a supporter of former President Donald Trump who had experience in skilled sports and never politics. “While Mr. Garvey has been signing baseball signatures for the past 37 years, I have seen presidents of both parties and governors of both parties sign my bills,” Schiff said.

The heated arguments contrasted with the dynamics of the race, which was largely calm and static after the March primary wherein Schiff spent tens of millions supporting Garvey and ousting his Democratic opponents, U.S. Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee went. Schiff dominated Garvey throughout statewide polls in deep blue California and has raised more cash overall than his GOP opponent – ​​enough to fund other Democrats in campaigns across the country.

Garvey, however, has run a way more low-key campaign and has stayed near home – other than a summer trip to Israel. He raised funds for his own campaign while skipping the California Republican Party convention and the Republican National Convention. He has also done interviews with local television stations and performed at local festivals.

Here's more on a number of the key topics through the debate hosted by ABC7 Los Angeles and the League of Women Voters of California:

abortion

Noting that he’s Catholic, Garvey said he pledges to support the desire of Californians on reproductive rights. In November 2022, California voters enshrined the correct to abortion and contraception within the state structure, which Garvey recognized.

Garvey said he believes reproductive freedom is a state-by-state issue. In January, Garvey said he opposes a nationwide ban on abortion. And in July he said he supported the overturn of Roe v. calfwhich ended a long time of federal abortion protections and gave decision-making authority to the states.

Schiff said he supported enshrining abortion rights in federal law and criticized Garvey for supporting the U.S. Supreme Court 2022 decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade.

“If my colleague were to hearken to the voices of Californians, as he claims, he would hear their voices loud and clear: Californians need a national right to reproductive freedom and so they are not looking for the federal government to make that call for ladies. said Schiff. “I’m for reproductive freedom, Mr. Garvey. You're not.”

“Court packing”

Schiff has blamed the Supreme Court's conservative majority for overturning the Roe decision supported the expansion of the court from nine judges to 13.

“What interests me is that a small number of conservative justices who have lied to the Senate about their plans intend to deprive millions of women of reproductive care,” he said.

In response, Garvey repeatedly accused Schiff of supporting court packing – a partisan ploy to alter the variety of justices to attain a desired result. Theoretically this is feasible, but efforts have been made prior to now failed as a result of fierce resistanceABC News reported.

Garvey argued that Schiff's support for nationwide abortion rights, gun control measures and the abolition of the filibuster – which effectively requires 60 votes to pass laws within the US Senate – show that Schiff desires to pack the court and “deconstruct” the Constitution.

In response, Schiff said that U.S. Supreme Court justices ought to be “rebalanced” and have their term limits based on a stricter code of ethics.

“As for the full room, Mr. Garvey, if you haven't been paying attention, it's already full,” Schiff said, referring to the conservative majority.

Weapons

Garvey, who told CalMatters about it last 12 months advocated a ban on assault weaponsHe didn't say whether he modified his position this evening. Instead, he focused solely on pre-sale background checks.

“I think the most important thing is a strong background check that goes much deeper than it does today, to preserve the integrity of the Second Amendment and give people the opportunity to defend themselves,” he said.

Schiff said he supports a universal background check law in addition to a ban on assault weapons and advanced ammunition loads. It would also “remove the (National Rifle Association’s) immunity from liability,” he said.

Donald Trump

Schiff – who led the primary impeachment trial of Donald Trump – continues to explain the previous president as an unfit leader. In his own race, he has tried to link Garvey – who has voted for Trump twice and plans to vote for him again – with Trump, accusing Garvey tonight of being a “MAGA Mini-Me in a baseball uniform.” be.

Garvey, nevertheless, said Schiff's give attention to his impeachment efforts against Trump prevented him from responding to the needs of Californians, arguing that it might be the “most toxic” Senate if Schiff were elected.

“I can’t imagine, Mr. Schiff, how you can get up every morning and accomplish a mission, and that is to go after Donald Trump,” Garvey said. “How can you think about and focus on one man every day when you have millions of people to care for in California?”

But Schiff wore his outspokenness against Trump as a badge of honor, arguing that he had “defied a corrupt president” and witnessed Trump “inciting” a mob that stormed the Capitol.

immigration

Tonight, Garvey described the border as “an existential crisis” created by President Joe Biden. As border crossings increased under Biden, he pushed for tighter border restrictions, including an expansion of executive powers close the border And Restrict asylum seekers.

But Garvey wrote a comment in La Opinión against mass deportation of illegal immigrants Trump promised when he returns to the White House. Instead, Garvey argued that the federal government should increase funding for U.S. Customs and Border Protection, strengthen border security and speed up green card applications for families. He called for a “temporary closure” of the border.

Additionally, Garvey said he supports reinstating the Trump-era policy of keeping asylum seekers in Mexico while their applications are pending. He opposed “catch and release,” which, reasonably than detaining a migrant, allows him to return to the community while he awaits an immigration court hearing.

Schiff said tonight the federal government must “take control of the border” and advocated for more personnel and technology to assist patrol the border while ensuring humane treatment of migrants.

“We can have both a strong border and treat people as people,” he said.

Schiff has criticized the policy of detaining migrants and criticized the conditions in some detention centers “Incredibly disturbing.” He advocated for increased funding to rent more judges and interpreters in immigration courts, more resources to enhance border controls and an expansion of humanitarian support for asylum seekers.

He also supports the US Citizenship Act, which would create a path to citizenship for some Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals recipients and undocumented immigrants in the event that they pass background checks and have worked within the country for at the very least five years.

Schiff and Garvey are vying for the support of Latino voters, and so they are the least more likely to vote despite representing the most important racial and ethnic group nationwide. As a part of an “all-in Latino community strategy,” Garvey’s campaign aired its first national TV ads on Oct. 4 — only in Spanish — as a part of a $5 million promoting buy.

Originally published: October 8, 2024 at 7:14 p.m

Jon Tester has never had it easy.

The three-term Democratic senator from Montana has received greater than 50% of the votes just once in his three runs for the U.S. Senate, a draw 50.3% of the vote in 2018 against State Auditor and future U.S. Representative Matt Rosendale.

This 12 months, Tester's at all times perilous path to re-election appears narrower and more harrowing than ever before. And the The end result could determine whether the Senate stays under Democratic control or hands over to Republicans.

Current polls and political forecasters are even starting to show against it moderate from the farming community of Big Sandy with the flattop haircut. Thirty-five Tester's opponent, former Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy, gained 4 percentage points, and the venerable Cook Political Report even went to this point as to say the race: “leans toward Republicans.”

For Montana State University Political scientist Jessi BennionThis election could mark the top of an era in rural America.

“I used to call Tester the unicorn candidate because there was no one like him,” she told my students a number of weeks ago. “He was a farmer, he was a rural Democrat, the last rural Democrat.”

The end of the unicorn?

I teach political reporting on the University of Montana School of Journalism, and each two years I send students out to interview candidates, racially profile, and confer with voters. It's true that the situation has modified, even since Tester won in 2018.

Despite the influx of outsiders during the last decade, Montana remains to be one sparsely populated state with 1.1 million inhabitants within the last census. Although the state has historically depending on mining and timber In much of the economy, recent economic activity in tourism and technology has helped the population increase by 10% within the last census.

But with this influx, Housing costs have skyrocketed And The same applies to property taxes. It also threatens one among Montana's political traditions.

You see, Montana has done something prior to now that only a few people do today – Ticket splittingwhen an individual votes for candidates from opposing parties in an election. It's hard to assume in a time of deep polarization, but out here within the Rocky Mountains and Northern Plains, voters would consistently vote for a Republican for president and infrequently for the Legislature as well. but in addition for the Democrat Jon Tester.

Tester was capable of assemble a coalition of voters within the Liberals' few factions—college towns like Missoula, union strongholds like Butte, and indigenous voters on the reservation—and filter out enough moderate voters in additional rural areas to realize electoral victories. When I moved here in 2009, it wasn't just Tester who did it. That's what Montana did back then a Democratic governor, Attorney General And Heads of faculties. But Over time, these statewide offices have all disappearedoften in double digits, to the Republicans.

No Democrat won statewide since Tester did it in 2018.

Migration and the March from Purple to Red

Then COVID-19 hit Montana.

The state experienced a rise in population, increase by almost 5% between 2020 and 2023and experts comparable to political scientists Jeremy Johnson I told my students earlier this fall that it was vital to know who these recent residents were.

“I still think the race can be competitive,” Johnson said. “I think some of my broader themes here – the polarization, the calcification, the reluctance to split tickets – make it harder for testers. I also think there is evidence that more Republican-leaning voters have moved to the state in recent years than Democratic-leaning voters.”

An evaluation reported by the Montana Free Press found that for each two Democrats who’ve moved to Montana since 2008, there have been three Republicans.

There is not any party registration in Montana. So whenever you vote in a primary, you receive a ballot for each parties and you select which party you should vote on. In the highly publicized US Senate primary this 12 monthsOnly 36% of primary voters voted within the Democratic primary, while 64% selected to vote within the Republican primary.

The only query mark of 2024

Ask Sen. Tester and he’ll say his campaign is much from over. He is emphasizes his independence from his political party, as Republican President Donald Trump signed bills he sponsored and be longstanding support of veterans because the cornerstone of his election campaign.

But his path to reelection could run directly through Roe vs. Wade.

Montana's Constitution was written in 1972and it has some pretty progressive elements, including a right to a clean environment and a express right to privacyversus the more implicit one within the US Constitution. And in 1999, the state Supreme Court said this The right to privacy included access to abortion.

Nevertheless, voters made the choice, partially to be certain that a later court decision couldn’t take away this right CI-128 is on the ballot this fallwhich might explicitly include protections for access to abortion within the state structure.

Tester hit the subject hard in his final debate with Sheehy on September 30, 2024.

“The bottom line is: whose decision should be made?” Tester said in the course of the debate. “Is it the federal government’s decision, the state government’s decision, Tim Sheehy’s decision, Jon Tester’s decision? No, it's the woman's decision. Tim Sheehy called abortion “horrible” and “murder.” It doesn’t sound to me like he would support the lady on this decision.”

Tester's supporters hope the initiative could encourage younger voters and moderate women to end up in droves this fall and that it could make Tester's path to re-election a little bit more feasible.

But it could take a little bit of unicorn magic for Tester to win a fourth term.

Back at Montana State University, Bennion said the situation looks pretty dire for Democrats in rural states.

“I don’t think a Democrat is going to win in the long run unless our state changes in a lot of different ways,” he said. “Exactly the way our state grows, the type of person who moves here and votes.”

Bay Area Home Report

A 2,199-square-foot home in-built 1924 has modified hands. The spacious historic property situated on the 900 block of Willow Glen Way in San Jose sold on August 27, 2024 for $2,200,000 or $1,000 per square foot. This single story home has three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Externally, the home is characterised by way of tar and gravel roofs. Inside, a fire enriches the atmosphere of the living area. In addition, the home is supplied with a single garage. The property comprises a generous 8,200 square meter plot.

These nearby houses also recently modified hands:

• A 1,685-square-foot home within the 1500 block of Settle Avenue in San Jose sold in June 2024 for $1,998,000, a price per square foot of $1,186. The house has 3 bedrooms and a pair of bathrooms.
• On Settle Avenue in San Jose, a 1,685 square foot home sold for $1,520,000 in March 2024, translating to a price per square foot of $902. The house has 3 bedrooms and a pair of bathrooms.
• In November 2022, a 1,666 square foot home on Ellis Avenue in San Jose sold for $1,600,000, translating to a price per square foot of $960. The house has 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom.

This article was created by the Bay Area Home Report Bot, a software that analyzes home sales or other data and creates an article based on a human-created template. Our property data comes from public records registered and digitized by local county offices. You can report errors or bugs to content@bayareanewsgroup.com.